Beating the 'Wow' odds in sports betting

Sep 23, 2008 7:01 PM

by Kevin Stott | It seems that everybody in Las Vegas has a "system" they try and use to beat the point spread or money line.

A recent trend in football handicapping has been to try and apply technical and fundamental indicators to figure out which is theoretically and mathematically the best side to take in a given game.

A brand new player in the marketplace – WOWODD$ – employs its own battery of statisticians in Los Angeles to come up with its product – charts for the NBA, college basketball, NFL, college football and MLB that the subscriber can use to simply plug in to tell him or her to either bet on ("TW" = To Win) or against ("TL" = To Lose) depending on the number on the board.

One of this new company’s main guys, who helped get the proverbial ball rolling financially, is a Las Vegas resident who wishes to remain anonymous. Self-dubbed "The Stat Guy," he talked about how WOWODD$ comes up with its unique charts.

"The way they come up with these numbers is team-by-team match-ups, all the background – all the things the books do really and they come to a number just like the books," said The Stat Guy. "Then when the book sets the number they put all this information together and then lay it off against all the teams that are playing this week. And that’s how they arrive at the statistics. And it’s quite amazing."

The Stat Guy admitted that some of the early users of the charts were having trouble reading them ("You should see the emails we receive") and figuring out how to plug in the decision on who to bet but after getting copies of all the company’s charts last week, it was very obvious to this writer how they worked.

Here’s a working example from Week No. 3 in college football from WOWODD$ charts: Penn State closed as a 27½-point (Las Vegas Hilton) favorite and the chart at -27½ said "TW" meaning you would bet on that favorite "To Win." The Nittany Lions obliged, hammering Syracuse, 55-13, thus covering the spread and making WOWODD$ customers happy.

Asked if he ever goes against his own company’s charts, The Stat Guy said, "Every time I do that I lose."

Although WOWODD$, whose mantra is "Helping you win is our business," just began doing business this year, the company boasts a 64 percent win rate when applying the charts to the point spread in college and a 51 percent win rate so far in the NFL.

And The Stat Guy – who advises users to pay particular attention to any number (on the charts) above 56 percent – knows that this new company is just starting to get going.

"I’m not expecting to hit a home run immediately," he said. "I’m in this for the long run."

In testing of their new product, WOWODD$ released its chart for the 2007 college football bowl season last December for free on its website (www.wowodds.com) and went a remarkable 42-18 ATS (70 percent) including the totals on the games.

Subscription rates for WOWODD$ run from weekly ($50) to monthly ($150) to full season ($249).