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Chalk Talk College Football Betting Tips 11-19-08

Nov 19, 2008 7:17 PM

Chalk Talk College Football Betting Tips by Kevin Stott |

Week 12 was the best yet for Chalk Talk, with a 7-1 record and this column’s "Predictions" spot on for those used to the Gold Sheet or Pointwise-style of prognosticating pigskin. But that’s in the past and the future’s what’s of interest to you serious football bettors.

Before the slate, here are some early media suggestions to visit to get your head right for the coming weekend’s games – the weekend before when one’s mind is fresh from the last action and ahead of the public’s opinion which can poison an astute gambler’s picks…

On Sunday’s Dave Tuley’s viewfromvegas.com features the first take on most of the college rotation with numbers supplied by Dr. Odds. Around 4 to 5 p.m. on Sundays,

donbest.com posts opening lines on its website and offers the handicapper that primal take on the specific lines attached to the individual games.

John Kelly and Arne Lang take to the radio airwaves on Sunday and Monday nights (10 p.m. PT, KLAV1260-AM) on the Leroy’s Sports Hour and this always informative show – the closest thing we have to The Stardust Line which Lang and Kelly were a big part of for 25 years – and reveal the opening lines (Leroy’s Sports Books) on Sundays and then discuss the entire board over the next two nights’ shows.

My opinion is that forming fresh feels for the games on Sunday and Monday is the best way to avoid being influenced by the pure volume of media and opinions we are exposed to throughout the week. Trust yourself and make your own selections and most importantly, try to get your amounts right. Arreverderci.

Thursday, Nov. 20

Bengals at Steelers (-10) {NFL Network}: An NFL game? Have you lost your bleeding mind James? And you’re fading the mega-trend of all mega-trends this season, betting with a double-digit favorite (1-17 ATS)? Anyway, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS L6 vs. Cincinnati and needs an impressive win. And with Roethlisberger gutting it out, Parker, Ward and Holmes warming up and the Heinz Field faithful screaming until their faces turn black and gold, the Bengals have to much to worry about and will find the Steelers defense rude hosts. Prediction: Steelers 27 Bengals 13. STEELERS -10.

Saturday, Nov. 22

Iowa State at Kansas State (-9) {12:30 p.m. PT, FSD-C, Channel 331, Cox Cable, LV}: Wildcat scores are like the high temperatures forecast for Sin City this week: in the mid-70’s. Lowest level bet though as Cyclones will try and slow pace. Prediction: KSU 44 Iowa State 33. OVER.

Washington (-8) at Washington State {12PT, FOXSP, Channel 49}: Never has the Apple Cup been so disgraced. Well we know someone will win and because the Cougars already have a "W" (Portland St.), me think Wazoo gonna git one of their own here. Visitors are 5-1 ATS L6, UW is 0-12 as a Pac-10 favorite of 3+ points and the underdog has peed on the spread 13 of the last 15. But all of those trends were when these two programs were somewhat respectable and WSU scores points like Rosie O’Donnell touches men – seldom. Prediction: Washington 35 Washington State 17. WASHINGTON -8.

#2 (AP) Texas Tech at #5 Oklahoma (-6) {5PT, ABC}: The Game of the Week so ordering a pizza and stocking the frig with your beverage of choice is strongly recommended. And so much to watch: Bradford vs. Harrell. Iglesias vs. Crabtree. TT’s massive O line against the Sooners’ stellar D. Stoops vs. Leech. And of course, Big 12 South positioning and a possible shot at staying in the BCS race and a date with Florida or Alabama down the road. That’s all…

Meetings recently have been close and this should be no different. OU misses LB Ryan Reynolds (Bishop Gorman) but the home field will help the Sooners who were 10-3 ATS at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium as a home favorite over the last two years.

One thing is certain here: Points will rain down like a monsoon. And I give the slight edge to the home team as this is the game the Red Raiders have feared on their schedule all season. Blemish time. Prediction: OU 55 TT. 44. OKLAHOMA -8, OVER.

(Note: Also Marc Lawrence Pointspread Power Play from Marc Lawrence Playbook)

Louisiana Tech (-6) at New Mexico State: All trends point to Aggies. La Tech has L7 ATS straight as favorites vs. opponents with a losing record and is 6-11 ATS its L17 as road favorites. And, the host has won seven in a row, cashing in three of four. But I don’t care. NMS is too weak and the Bulldogs aren’t bad. Prediction: Louisiana Tech 44 NMS 33. LOUISIANA TECH -6.

#21 Oregon State at Arizona (-3) {4 p.m., Versus}: Seems like the wrong side is favored here Hugo. Beavers feeling good and with the Rodgers brothers ands Sammie Stroughter, have too many weapons who can matriculate the ball upfield. Take OSU on the moneyline. OREGON STATE M/L.

North Texas at MTSU (-21): My favorite rat got a week off but I haven’t forgotten North Texas. The Blue Raiders have outscored the Mean Green over the last two years, 83-28 and those two NT teams were probablya better than this year’s model. Fading the Eagles (NT) in the FIRST HALF has been a profitable proposition and MTSUI should be up at least 14 at the break here in Murfreesboro. Running out of Mean Green games (one left, Arkansas State) to wager on. Help! Prediction: MTSU 48 NT 17. MTSU 1H, MTSU -21.

Overtime: Want to watch the high school football Game of the Year? LV readers of GamingToday can head out to Palo Verde High School (333 S. Pavillon Center Drive) in Summerlin Friday night (7 p.m.) and watch host Palo Verde (12-0) face defending Class 4A state champ Bishop Gorman (12-1) in the Sunset Region championship game and a spot in the state semifinals. My take? PV will be favored but BG will find a way to win in a low-scoring affair. Prediction: Bishop Gorman 23 Palo Verde 21.

Here’s the Rats 11 List as we head into Week 13…

THE RATS 11 LIST
1.
Western
2.
Kentucky
3.
Washington State
4.
North Texas
5.
Oakland
6.
Raiders
7.
Washington
8.
Syracuse
9.
Idaho
10.
LA-Monroe
11.
San Diego State
12.
New Mexico State
13.
Indiana

> OFF THE LIST: Wyoming, Utah State, Army, Eastern Michigan.

> CRAPPY BUT NOT BETTABLE: Indiana State, Howard, Coleville High School (Lost 128-74 to Pahranagat Valley HS in Nevada Class 1A Semifinals).

> WEAKEST REGION: Pacific Northwest (WSU, UW, Idaho, Seattle Seahawks).

> UNDERDOGS WORTH TEASING UP +7: Indiana +20 over Purdue, Michigan +26 over Ohio State, North Carolina State +18 over North Carolina, Syracuse +26 over Notre Dame, Tulane +35 over Tulsa, Air Force +26 over TCU, San Diego State +20 over UNLV.

LAST WEEK
SEASON
PCT.
BE$T BET$
7-1
   71-44
62%
     13-4