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NFL Football Betting Tip of the Day Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints - 11-24-08

Nov 24, 2008 7:19 PM

by GT Staff |

NFL Football

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Weather: (Inside Superdome)

TV: ESPN

Time: 8:15 ET/7:15 CT/5:15 PT

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1, 51½ Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook):

An interesting matchup that probably seemed a lot better to the schedule makers when it was set up, this game will be entertaining and either team can win. For the Saints, who have lost after every win this season (they beat KC last week), the problems are simple but deflating: they have no rushing attack and their defense is very lame.

New Orleans’ (5-5, 6-4 ATS) strength is its passing game, with QB Drew Brees (2,351 passing yards, 15 TDs) on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record. Brees has a plethotra of decent targets in Marcus Colston, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, David Patten, Marcus Colston and Reggie Bush who is listed as "Questionable" for this game. My feel is the game is so important for NO that Bush will definitely play. Of quirky note, the Saints haven’t played at home in 55 days.

Green Bay (5-5, 7-3 ATS), which leads the all-time series 14-6, also is a pretty pass-happy team with QB Aaron Rodgers (2,352 passing yards, 15 TDs) filling in admirably at the position in his first year replacing legend Brett Favre. Rodgers also has his own cadre of pass-catchers in Greg Jennings (48 receptions, 5 TDs), Donald Driver (45, 3 TDs) and TE Donald Lee (29 , 3 TDs). What may help GB in this contest is they do have a running game (Ryan Grant, 770 rushing yards), while NO’s has been dormant.

So it’s simple: the two things the Saints can’t do effectively – rush the ball and play defense – are solid from the Packers point of view. And GB’s D can score as it

recorded its franchise-record seventh TD on defense last week against the Bears.

Trend players are surely aware that every MNF game but one has gone over the total this year and this one sets up to be a desperate shootout – especially from NO’s perspective. Although the opening number has been bet down from 53½ to 51½ right now (Sunday, 3 pm PT), the OVER is the call due to the strength of the trend itself combined with the fact that both teams, will throw, throw, throw, stopping the clock with incomplete passes and matriculating the ball up the field on completions. And with so many weapons on the field and weather not being an issue, both teams should near the 30-point mark.

Side-wise, take a chance on Green Bay on the money line who is playing better football now than New Orleans and knows that the Bears and Vikings won on Sunday. OVER, PACKERS MONEY LINE.

TWO-SIDE TEASER TIME? PACKERS +8, OVER 44½