Chalk Talk College Football Betting Tips 11-26-08

Nov 26, 2008 7:30 PM

Chalk Talk College Football Betting Tips by Kevin Stott |

Watching last Saturday’s Apple Cup battle between Washington and Washington State – permanent residents of the Rats 11 List since its inception – I realized that a really poorly played game between two terrible teams could actually be more entertaining in the end than an Oklahoma-Texas Tech tussle (No. 2 vs. No. 5).

A combined 2-21 SU and 4-18 ATS – with one of those wins and covers coming last Saturday when WSU topped Wazoo – the Evergreen State’s contribution to the Pac-10 provided a doozy with the Cougars driving to tie the game 10-10 in the last minute after UW’s poor kicker Ryan Perkins missed two easy FG attempts in the second half.

WSU won in double OT when Perkins missed wide right and I pretended to learn a lesson I’ll apparently never learn: Don’t ever bet on a Rat

Enough with the bleeding Apple Cup. This week’s schedule looks as bountiful as a Thanksgiving spread complete with a juicy, tasty roast turkey (Arkansas State + 1H), stuffing (Oklahoma), sweet potatoes with marshmallows (Florida), cranberry sauce (Alabama), dinner rolls (Texas), string beans (Mizzou), mashed potatoes (Neb-Col over) and pumpkin pie with whipped cream (USC).

Let’s eat baby…

Thursday, Nov 27

Teaxs A&M at #2 (BCS rank) Texas (-35) {ESPN}: This Texas Turkey Day tussle has seen A&M cover the last three but the Longhorns have gone 8-4-1 ATS L13 in the series. The number is high but UT has gone 13-2 ATS L15 in the home finale and need a blowout for some BCS love. Prediction: Texas 50 Texas A&M 10. TEXAS -35.

Friday, Nov. 28

Mississippi State at Mississippi (-12½) {ESPN GamePlan}: Since we can’t bet over on the total number of "s’s" in their names, we’ll leave The Egg Bowl alone. PASS.

Colorado at Nebraska (-15) {ABC, 3:30 ET/12:30 PT}: It seems Cornhusker games go over routinely and considering last year’s game saw 116 points, handicapping this total is like forecasting the weather here in Las Vegas – easy. OVER.

Fresno State at Boise State (-20) {espn2]: Oddsmakers obviously respect the Broncos and Fresno State (2-9 ATS) is now sort of a slouch. Boise State (11-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) has gone 6-1 ATS L7 vs. the Bulldogs and has won by an average score of 36-22 in those meetings. The Broncs will be looking to keep their perfect season going and with QB Kellen Moore finding everyone as targets and the Smurf Turf magic – 8-2 ATS on it in home finales – Boise State should get over the number because of its stellar defense (10.3 PPG). Make a cold turkey sandwich and enjoy this entertaining team with Vinny Perretta, Jeremy Childs, Jeremy Avery, Austin Pettis and Ian Johnson. Prediction: Boise State 38 Fresno State 13. BOISE STATE -20.

Saturday, Nov. 29

Kansas at #13 Missouri (-13): Whereas last year’s game was a showdown between two programs in the national title hunt, this year’s version will reveal why the Tigers are the superior program. Trend-wise, the underdog has gone 9-4 the L13, but in Columbia, expect Mizzou to do a mini-rain dance on the Fighting Manginos. With Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin feeling less Big 12 love because of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, they’ll show off in this one and set themselves up to play the Big 12 South winner in the conference’s championship game later this fall. Prediction: Missouri 48 Kansas 28. MISSOURI -13.

#3 Oklahoma (-8½) at #12 Oklahoma State: Never in recent years has The Bedlam Rivalry been such a big game in the Sooner State. A couple of trends favor OSU here: the home team is 8-1-1 ATS L10 and the Cowboys are 16-9-1 ATS against their archrival, including 4-1 the L5 in Stillwater but mighty Oklahoma is 3-0 ATS the L3 and looks like an assembly line on offense. Seldom does the number affect my feel for a game but this baby just seems too low for such a talented group like Oklahoma. Prediction: Oklahoma 55 Oklahoma State 28. OKLAHOMA. (BE$T BET$)

#4 Florida (-14) at Florida State: Tebow and Harvin have the Gators offense now cranking up like they thought it could but the Seminoles have picked it up a notch this year for Old Boy Bobby Bowden. The Gators are 3-1 ATS the L4 in the series but Florida is just 1-5 the L6 in Tallahassee’s Doak Campbell Stadium. Last year, the Gators trounced the Seminoles, 45-12 and with Tebow and Harvin clicking for Coach Meyer and an SEC showdown with #1 Alabama all but a foregone conclusion, expect a top-notch effort in this one and a 20+ point win in the process. And here’s a megatrend that will make your mouth water: The straight up winner of the Sunshine State shootout is an amazing 24-2-1 ATS. Prediction: Florida 42 FSU 17. FLORIDA -14. (BE$T BET$)

Notre Dame at #5 USC (-29): If you lose to Syracuse, can you beat USC? You don’t have to answer that one. The Trojans have gone 9-3 ATS L12 vs. the Fighting Irish and are still theoretically in the BCS hunt so expect a top-notch effort from Pete Carroll’s boys here. And has anyone noticed how dominant the Boys from Troy’s defense has been this campaign? Of note, USC is 19-5 ATS after a week’s rest and playing ND will probably seem like a scrimmage after dancing with its Pac-10 opponents to date. Prediction: USC 44 Notre Dame 7. USC -29.

Arkansas State (-18) at North Texas: Last week to pick on the Mean Green (1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS) this season and picking is one of my favorite things (Insert joke here). The Red Wolves are now out of the Sun Belt race but this selection is much more of a pick against NT rather than a pick on Arkansas State. NT has a killer WR in Fitzgerald but they allow points like this country allows illegal aliens to enter in. Fading NT in the FIRST HALF has been great this year, except a couple times, so why stop? Then thing with the Mean Green is that they get killed by average to good to opponents and ASU has been above average this year. Prediction: Arkansas State 48 North Texas 22. ARKANSAS STATE, FIRST HALF (BOTH BE$T BET$).

Sunday, November 30

New York Giants (-3) at Washington Redskins: Always a great under play, this may be the time to lay off the total and just bank on the G-Men, who look like the best team in the NFL again. No team is deeper and with guys like Boss and Bradshaw and Smith emerging, keying on just one player like Plaxico or Jacobs can be a big mistake. The Redskins will be putting too much pressure on themselves and with the Super Bowl champs sporting a 9-2 ATS mark, I want my money in their jockstrap – well not literally.

Prediction: Giants 30 Redskins 14. NEW YORK GIANTS (BE$T BET$).

LAST WEEK
SEASON
PCT
BE$T BET$
7-2
78-46
63%
14-4

 

Rats 11 List
1.
Washington
2.
North Texas
3.
Western Kentucky
4.
Washington St.
5.
Idaho
6.
Army
7.
Indiana
8.
Eastern Michigan 
9.
Wyoming
10.
Syracuse
11.
San Diego State

MONSTER MONEY LINE PLAY IF YOU CAN FIND IT:

Washington State (29½-point underdogs) to upset host Hawaii (Saturday, 8pm PT)

BONUS TOTALS: UNDER KC-OAK.