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NFL: It's Tampa or freeze

Dec 21, 2008 7:22 PM
by Mark Mayer | More than any previous week in the NFL season, inclement weather figures to shape opinions on betting, especially regarding projected totals. Unless you’re in a dome or basking in 70-degree sunshine in Tampa, any football viewing is best done in front of the television.

Start with Kansas City with a morning temperature of 8 degrees and a wind chill of -10 as the Chiefs host Miami. For the Dolphins, this will be the coldest game played in franchise history.

And it gets worse. The Arizona-Patriots game in New England is forecast for snow to an already ravaged region. Cleveland will have snow flurries and 20 degrees, Denver 11 degrees and a wind chill of -1, Seattle a wind chill of 20, Oakland light rain and 49, Nashville 29 for the big Titans-Steelers clash while New York and Washington will be in the mid 30s and light rain.

Finally there’s Chicago, which expects a high of 12 degrees and snow showers for Monday night’s game between the Bears and Green Bay Packers. St. Louis, Minnesota and Detroit are fine since their games are indoors.

"I usually study the Weather Channel for hours to pick up these kind of things," said GamingToday columnist Sid Diamond, who has made a nice living off betting over / under totals. "Weather can make all the difference."

And it has lowered the totals. The Cardinals-Patriots game in New England dropped from 44½ to 43. The Dolphins-Chiefs matchup in Kansas City went down from 38½ to 37. The Bengals-Browns game in Cleveland went from 33 earlier in the week to a season low 31.

According to GT analyst Andy Iskoe, the over holds a razor slim 107-106-10 edge. But now that we’ve hit the severe mid-December weather, it wouldn’t surprise us to see the under climb ahead.