Here in Reno for the countdown to Super Bowl 43, I had dinner with my fellow sport book honchos Nicky Bogdonavich and Chris Andrews. We agreed and disagreed on when and how the late money will show.
You have heard talk of this being a dead game, but I see it as simply a dead number. People will always come out to support, bet, and enjoy the game just like the previous 42.
The networks will be squirming about small and large market cities and ratings. Heck, with their discord for us, It’s not worth the time and effort to discuss.
Back to the dead number and not dead game. The bulk of money won’t even show until later in the week, but you like to have a little cash in the bank before we get to the rush. A giraffe could have made this number because basically the only two openers could be 6½ or a flat 7.
We sliced the money down to the nub and, as anticipated, all early small ticket money is on the dog. This makes an attractive number come game time on the favorite with the money line, but that doesn’t mean you have to get there even if taking 20 or 30 cents the best of it.
Go back to last year’s game. The Pats were 13 or higher with the money line being a correct number with the point spread. From Sunday night until Tuesday, there was a lot of maneuvering, which meant plenty of betting. The number fell to 10 and 10½ with some buyback. So basically you had two-way action with just 72 hours of betting.
The props will do their work as the smarts pound out the mistakes and weekend guys bet the one coinciding with the team. Players are not concerned where this price opened. So with basically no movement that amounts to nothing but water cooler conversation.
The "smarts" will not jump in until they feel their side is moving away from them. This number looks to staying where it is as you read GamingToday. The standard final books have always rooted for has been the favorite to win, but not cover. This would knock out the money line and whack up the parlays.
The books are backing Pittsburgh to win and cover, as the ticket count will be at least 2-1 in favor of the Cards. But that’s just my view.