Aristotle can explain dumb baseball bets, steroids

Feb 24, 2009 5:09 PM
Getting Rich with Saber by Richard Saber |

The entire steroid issue is really getting to me.

I try not to even get into a conversation about it, but I happened to be watching a round table discussion regarding Alex Rodriguez and the nasty "roids" issue. During this round table they talked to a number of former players, general managers, etc getting their comments, opinions, stories etc., about steroids.

One of those was former Minnesota Twins pitcher Jim Kaat, who voiced his opinion understanding how players would use steroids to gain an advantage or just be able to compete. He said that when he pitched in a game in Minnesota it was hard to throw a curveball in the dome, causing him to use pine tar to get a better grip.

Between innings the home plate umpire came out and told Kaat, "I know what you’re doing. You’re putting a foreign substance on the ball." To which Kaat replied, "It’s not foreign. It’s made in North Carolina."

There are no steroids that can improve my handicapping, but in my many travels in and out of race and sports books I always hear so many things that it just makes me laugh. Some bettors bet the same way day in and day out and for some reason never win.

The Greek philosopher Aristotle wrote: "We are what we repeatedly do."

Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit. Same with failing. So if you continue to lose wouldn’t you try and change what you are doing?

This reminds me of an old horse story about two people in a movie theater. There is a horse scene and one guy says to the other, "I’ll bet you five bucks the 6 wins." The other guy takes the bet and the 6 loses by a head. So the guy pays off the bet and says, "I just don’t understand it. I saw this movie last week."

So the guy who won the bet says, "Why did you bet the 6? The loser responds, "I though he was ready today."

Let’s get back to some winning. These are some betting tips on baseball that come straight from my cousin Lou Lamatrice, who has been a very successful baseball bettor for some 20 years.

• When betting favorites, never lay more than -150.

• When you have a starting pitcher -200 or higher, take the dog +1½ runs.

• After a rivalry series (i.e. Red Sox at Yankees) bet against those two the next game. Look for letdowns.

• Bet against teams returning home after long road trips.

• Bet against big name pitchers when facing a lesser known. Take the dog straight up and +1½ runs.

• Bet on well known pitchers off a bad last outing.

• Bet on live home dogs.

And here’s a proven old gem!

• It is very difficult to get swept or sweep two straight series. Bet against teams that have won 5 in a row and really make a nice bet if you see a 10-game streak. It is very hard to get to 11. Same is true for teams losing 5 straight. Bet on them not to lose 6,

NASCAR is in town this weekend and we welcome them. Not only does the race help our sagging economy, but these are some of the nicest people you want in town.

NASCAR fans don’t bother anyone. They just make bets, drink beer and have a good time. They are very similar to the rodeo crowd, so thanks for coming and have a great time.

This past Saturday, Palace Station had another great giveaway in the race book. It was a resounding success again. The next one is Santa Anita Handicap Day on Saturday, March 7. Be there or be square.

Stop and say hi. I just may have a winner for you.