Cash in on big NFL parlay card overlays

Oct 27, 2009 4:06 PM
Getting Rich with Saber by Richard Saber |

That’s right, I am still here, even with the New York Giants going down in a whimper. But my worse loss was losing my bet on the Dolphins +7 as they blew a three touchdown lead.

At least there were enough winners in college to keep me from drowning. I can’t say the same for the feared Dr. Bob who went 2-9 with his college releases.

I have been in this business for a long time and I’ve noticed over the years that when the books take a game off the parlay card, you should bet against the side that they are afraid of getting any action on because the line may have moved a few points.

This week there were a few good plays but the best bet was Navy, which was a -2½ point favorite. But when their starting QB was listed as out, Wake Forest moved to a -1½ point chalk and the game was taken off the card. Navy won by a field goal.

In the NFL, the Bengals opened as a -2 point chalk but the game moved to the Bears -1½; Bengals won easy.

One game that no one wanted any part of was the Bills at the Panthers, as it was well-known the Bills had QB problems. There was little movement on this game but there was a lot of fear booking it on the parlay cards; Bills won easily.

Keep an eye out for these type of games as they become big overlays with the point spread.

What I don’t understand is why they fear these low profile games. The games that kill the sports books are all these good teams beating up on the lousy ones, like the Colts who were -13½ on most cards, the Packers and teams like the Pats playing the Buccaneers.

As I love to play the parlay cards, what really bugs me is why most books take off the MAC games. The MAC is a good conference; if the books think these MAC games are dangerous then don’t deal them at all.

Steubenville Big Red finally went down to defeat in the last seconds when the highly touted Michigan Inkster QB Devin Gardener tossed a long TD pass. But there was still good news for people in Steubenville as the Cincinnati Bearcats remained unbeaten with a big time effort by ex-Big Red QB sophomore Zach Collaros, who completed 15 of 17 passes for 253 yards and three TD’s and also ran for 52 yards in what was a near perfect performance.

Don’t forget to mark your calendar, not only for turning your clock back one hour this Saturday night, but also put a big circle on November 5 and mark next to that circle 6 p.m., Palace Station, for our big Breeders’ Cup Seminar featuring Race Day Las Vegas’ Ralph Siraco, Palace Station’s Viv Vivio and yours truly as we all get together for a good time. There will be some top notch handicapping, and food and drink.

It was a good weekend in college football as yours truly went 7-3, which made up for my 1-2 record in the NFL, so let’s see what we have this week in the colleges.

Thursday

North Carolina +16½ at Virginia Tech: Hokies will be happy to get back home to Blacksburg where they are almost unbeatable; they look to get back to their winning ways as they take on the Tar Heels. VT -16 ½

Saturday

Iowa State +7 at Texas A&M: Aggies are off big win as a two TD dog against Texas Tech and catch Iowa State also off a huge win as they beat Nebraska 9-7. TEXAS A&M -7

San Jose State +34½ at Boise State: The Broncos continue to stay perfect but even if the go undefeated and they could as they only have one more big game left and that is at home against Nevada, they will not have a shot at the National Championship. BOISE -34½

Kansas State +25 at Oklahoma: Sooners with three losses can not look forward if they want a good Bowl bid, they will pour it on. OKLAHOMA -25

Texas -9 ½ at Oklahoma State: This will be the marquee game of the week, with a win here and only UCF, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M coming up it looks like a trip to the BCS championship game for Texas. This will not be easy as the Longhorns just did eke out a 28-24 win at home last year. The crowd will be nasty and the points look to good to pass up. OKLAHOMA STATE +9½

Penn State -14 at Northwestern: With the Buckeyes coming up next week the Lions may not be cranked for a top effort and Northwestern showed a lot of guts with comeback win last week. NORTHWESTERN +14

Mississippi State +3 at Kentucky: This looks like one of the best plays of the week as Kentucky catches the Bull Dogs off a hard fought loss against Florida last week, KENTUCKY -3

USC -3 at Oregon: This will be the other marquee game of the week as the surging Ducks get USC in Eugene and this will be another nasty crowd. Oregon on major roll since losing season opener to Boise St.; it will be win or nada so take Oregon on the money line. OREGON MONEY LINE.

NFL

Sunday

Broncos+3½ at Ravens: The NFL has been feast or famine as one week it’s the chalk and the next week it’s the dogs. It will all come to a screeching stop for Denver in this game as the Ravens will take it to them. RAVENS -3½

Vikings +3½ at Packers: I don’t think Brett will get a standing "O" and if the weather is cold, the Pack will get big time revenge from early loss at Minnesota. GREEN BAY -3½

Question? Comment? E-mail me at: Richard Saber