Are you getting the best or worst of NFL line moves

Nov 3, 2009 5:02 PM
Vaccaro’s View by Jimmy Vaccaro |

You’ve got one choice to make – bet the early virgin number or the old beat-up ’78 Plymouth edition on game day.

Remember, you are not a part of a group who just beats every early move, only to decide what to do with it later. This is for your "kick."

Let’s use Sunday’s games as an example. Forget the final score of the game because we all can pick the winners when they are in the can.

The Colts opened 10 and you could have taken 13 at post time with the 49ers; the Eagles opened -1½ and switched favorites to the Giants -2.

Now, these two examples show that, by waiting, you have choice numbers on the winners, but we all know for certain it plays the other way also.

As of Monday morning, you can see that the Saints send out was 8½ points and at Lucky’s on Sunday night we were at 12½ with a certainty it will be 13 by post time on Monday night.

When I first started working in the 70’s, I would venture to say 70% of games that moved early were on plays that the bettors were intending to keep.

Remember, now we are in a different generation with people with deep pockets who understand line moves from either the "smarts" or the public. These guys put themselves in good positions.

Yet, I am convinced that more late-movers are on the "side" at that current number.

I’m not suggesting that "snowballs" are being sent out to phony up some games, although I am not that naive to think it does not happen, at least not to the degree as the uniformed are.

Through all of the morphing I have seen this industry go through, it still boils down to putting your cash up, taking the best number and holding on to it.

But going back to the premise of the story, and asking yourself honestly where you would take your best shot. I have had countless conversations through the years and I can tell you "honestly" that I believe you can do more damage later rather than earlier.

I would lay 11/10 on it. Take care, Jimmy V.

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