Be wary of double digit chalk when betting NFL games

Dec 22, 2009 5:04 PM
Vaccaro’s Views by Jimmy Vaccaro |

I just watched the ending of the Panthers-Vikings game, which demonstrated how quickly the change of fortunes are in the NFL.

The Saints also showed some vulnerability and now the Cowboys are back in the NFC playoff picture.

After the Vikings’ second bad game in three weeks, whispers started about the ageless wonder, Brett Favre.

But the clearest thing is that the "bad" teams are showing enough life to keep the games competitive.

I don’t keep the stats but the double digit dogs are now cashing tickets at a good pace. This is in contrast to the first half of the season, when betting on the left side of the card was all the handicapping you needed to do.

With some precincts still checking in, the games should have played well for most books as three of the double digit dogs cashing in, and one even had a +700 dog (Oakland) getting the cheese outright.

It does seem for certain that the teams are playing much closer to form during the last half of the season, but the wind is still blowing for big favorites.

The overnights have come out for next week’s games and we have five double digit numbers with the Saints leading the way, giving up 16 points to the Buccaneers, who took care of a dysfunctional Seattle team as a 7 point dog.

But even with the high price favorites there was not a lot of buy back from the smarts when the Lions got to +14 and the Broncos laid -14 for two days, so there is still not enough in the pudding to see these numbers being driven back down.

That’s what makes the NFL so hard to beat. All you can do is put up a fair number with an idea on where you are going to be on Sunday morning, sit back and watch.

So the double digit favorites sent you home on a Greyhound, but this week you have five more to swing at.

Personally I do not have a clue about tomorrow night, let alone next Sunday, but I would tread carefully this week; after all it is Christmas and who wants to end up with coal in their stocking.

Take care, Jimmy V.

Question? Comment? E-mail me at: Jimmy Vaccaro