Saber's Horse Selections for Thur., March 6, 2008

Mar 6, 2008 7:00 PM

Selections made before late scratches


March 6, 2008

Race 1

I would not be surprised by anyone in this lousy $32k maiden claimer so if I was betting on this race I would look for a little price horse and that just may be #1 American Symphony who arrived here in the barn of top trainer Doug O’Neill. This 4yo filly had been running at Zia park and showed a little ability and did run good in her first start for Mr. O. in a 25k maiden claimer so it is encouraging to see him move her up a notch. 5-1 or better and I will take a shot. I will start a Pick 3 using her as a single and then another Pick 3 and Pick 4 using an all in this race.

Race 2

In this allowance downhill turf sprint no one has earned a figure that would be par for this race so I will venture out and take a shot with my top two figures, #3 Nottingham Forest who has been as consistent as you can be for the red-hot Jerry Hollendorfer and the Bobby Frankel shipper #5 Ventura. I will key both in the picks.

Race 3

The morning line favorite in this race is an 11-year-old by the name of Aggressive who is trained by Jeff Mullins' assistant Ral Ayers, but it is really Jeff as nothing really changes in these barns when the main guy has to sit it out. But at 7-5 I will try and beat him. I will take a shot with #1 a hard-hitting 10-year-old by the name of Lord Albion. He has been knocking heads with Trail Mix when the track was like cement but with the change of surface I look for him to come back strong at what will be a good price. I also will use #2 Lendell who is taking a big drop in class and is going back to a distance that will suit him and jockey Rosario who won with him at this track going 7f, he will be flying late. There are also two longshots to consider in the Pick 3 but not the Pick 4 and they are the bottom two horses that show up here in the barn of Keith Craigmyle, both were in the Ron McAnally barn last year, so it is very strange that both show up here with a huge drop in class.

I will play two Pick 3's:

Race 1: #1 American Symphony (single)

Race 2: #3 Nottingham Forest and #5 Ventura

Race 3: #1 Lord Albion, #2 Lendell, #4 Aggressive, #7 Alittlebitleft, #8 Reach For Gold A ($1 Pick 3 will cost $10)

My second Pick 3 will look like this

Race 1: ALL

Race 2: I will use 3 and 5

Race 3: I will use 1-2-4 a one dollar Pick 3 will cost $42

Race 4

$75k maiden claimer with three first time starters and a Calder shipper, so I will just use this race in my early Pick 4. I will take a shot with two horses in this race, first the Calder shipper #4 Ditto, who lands in the top barn of Julio Canani. This girl should come out running especially with longshot jock Quinonez in the irons. I also will use #7 Avada Kedava, who gets a little drop in class and first time Lasix. Jockey Richard Migliore also stays aboard and that is a good sign. This girl broke from post position No. 1 in her first start so the switch to the outside will only help her chances. This will be my Pick 4:

Race 1: #1 American Symphony

Race 2: #3 Nottingham Forest and #5 Ventura

Race 3: #1 Lord Albion, #2 Lendell and #4 Aggressive

Race 4: #4 Ditto This and #7 Avada Kedava, (total bet for a $1 ticket will be $12)

Race 5

If #2 Familiar Stranger stays in this race he will be even money or less and I would not try to beat him and pass the race or just take a shot and use him as a single in the Pick 4s. If he is a late scratch I will use #1 Ymustichasethecat, #4 Quintons Fleet, #6 Cactus Lightning and #9 Sonic Comic who is 15-1 morning line and is getting a big drop in class.

Race 6

This is one tough 6½ F. downhill turf sprint. The only horse that has run par for this 32k claimer is #3 Brilliant Cut the Bobby Frankel dropper who has been a bust for Frankel and has the looks of a sucker yet is a must use. #4 Presidential Cause won on this course in his only try and is also a must use. #8 Brenin Gwalia also won on this course and retains Solis who is riding much better. The longshot in here just could be #11 Tap It light who gets in from the also eligible list and gets off of the Vets list for trainer Doug O’Neill, so whatever went bad could be okay now and at 15-1 he is worth a shot. 3-4-8-11 will be the Pick 4 numbers.

Race 7

I made this a two horse race with #2 Carrilero and #7 Street Boss. Carrilero enters off a layoff but trainer Mike Pupe can have them ready and this guy never runs a bad race. Street Boss just did fail at .80 cents on the dollar in his last and looks to make amends. The two outsiders are #5 Temecula Creek who can run good off a little layoff and #3 Vespucci who disappointed in his first try in the US but did sprint good in France. He was bet like a good thing in his first try here as he was sent off at 3-2. I will make a dollar tri box of 2-3-5-7 ($24) and use all four in the late Pick 3.

Race 8

I am taking a big shot in this race and making it my best bet of the day. I love #9 Cape Hatchet with Joel Rosario up in place of C Sutherland. This one should get a great trip in his second start and trainer Art Sherman is due to heat up. The winner of the race that he exits came back last week and won. There are several out of that same race but I think Cape Hatchet has the most upside and I will single him in the Pick 4s and make key trifecta using him first and second with five horses underneath and above. My tri will look like this: Key #9 with 3-4-5-8-12 a one dollar tri ($20.00) then 3-4-5-8-12 with 9 and one dollar tri ($20.00)

My late Pick 4 will look like this:

Race 5 #2 Familiar Stranger

Race 6 #3-4-8-11

Race 7 #2-3-5-7

Race 8 single #9 Cape Hatchet

A $1 Pick 4 will cost $16, if Familiar Stranger is scratched in the fifth I will use this ticket in my late Pick 4:

Race 5 #1-4-6-9

Race 6 #3-4-8-11

Race 7 #2-7

Race 8 single #9 Cape Hatchet (this ticket will cost $32)

My late Pick 3 will look like this:

Race 6 #-4-8-11

Race 7 #2-3-5-7

Race 8 single #9 Cape Hatchet (Ticket cost is $16)

Bay Meadows

I am making one play today at Bay Meadows and that will be the late Pick 4 races five through eight:

Race 5: #4 Surley Temple did not like the track at the gate, gets a drop in class for this on and she will be flying down the lane with a big late run. #7 River Harriet also gets a drop and R. Baze takes over for the ever dangerous Steve Sherman.

Race 6: Greg Gilchrist holds the aces in this race with #4 Frisco Fox and #7 Luck Be a Lily, if both go they could dead heat for the win.

Race 7: Looks to be a three horse race with #1a Long Arm of the Law who takes a big drop in class, #4 Jachonic who just did miss on the off track in his last and #7 Utah Beach who looks fastest in this heat.

Race 8: This is a two-horse race unless #2 Eric’s Baby who is stretching out takes them wire to wire with Gonzo up and he can do it. The main two are #3 Madre May (1 for 16) and #4 Sweet N Shiney who takes a big drop for Hollendorfer and Baze and will be odds on in here. The late Pick 4 will look like this:

Race 5 #4-7

Race 6 #4-7

Race 7 #1a-4-7

Race 8 #3-4 total cost of ticket is $24