My secret to success: Bring enough $$$ to quit ahead

March 18, 2008 6:00 PM
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Winning Strategies by Elliot Frome | Last week, I mentioned in passing that if you want to beat the casino often, this was an easy task to accomplish.

You’ll get all the bragging rights from your friends. Go to Las Vegas 100 times a year and you’ll walk away a winner 80 or 90 percent of the time. Your friends will be in shock. Maybe they’ll make a movie out of your story (like the upcoming ‘21’). The best part is, you don’t even have to know how to card count. Better than best, I’m going to give you the secret completely for free, right here in this column today.

It is very easy to do. From now on, when you go to a casino, take out $500 from the bank. When you get to the casino, go to the roulette table and bet $1 on any number of your choice. For each spin, you can bet the same number or keep changing numbers, it doesn’t matter. If at some point, you’re up $25 or more, you stop and go home. If at some point, you lose $200, you stop and go home. There it is. Using this method, you can romp through Las Vegas and you’ll win about 82 percent of the time.

This strategy doesn’t require that you play ‘endlessly’ for hours. You certainly don’t have to memorize any strategies and worry about making mistakes. If you go to the casino once a week, about 41 times a year you’re walking away with at least $25 in winnings. That is $1,000 per year in winnings. In case this doesn’t excite you much, you can be a big shot instead.

Take out $50,000. Wager $100 chips. Stop when you’re ahead $2,500 or more, or down $20,000 or more. Now, you’ll walk away those 41 times with more than $100,000 of the casino’s money. This is all being done a game that pays only 97.3 percent. Imagine what you could do at Blackjack or Video Poker.

What’s the catch? The other 11 times, you’re going to lose $20,000. At the end of the year, you’ll be able to take the total amount wagered, multiply it by the theoretical payback (97.3 percent) and find that you’ve lost very close to the 2.7 percent you were supposed to.

You can’t change the laws of math by taking breaks or fidgeting with your bankroll. As you play more and more hands (in your entire lifetime), the laws of math say that you will get closer and closer to the theoretical payback, given whatever strategy you are choosing to play.

I chose Roulette for this example because there is no strategy. I could’ve just as easily used any casino game.

Just for fun, I could have my simulation set up so I stop if I win $1. However, I have to lose the entire $500 bankroll before I stop on the losing side. With this, I’ll win 99 percent of the time. But at the end of the year, I’ll win or lose essentially the same amount of money, based on the same formula of total wager multiplied by theoretical payback.

Of course, it all depends what your goal is. If your goal is win more money than you lose, you’re going to have to play positive games over the long haul. If your goal is to have more winning trips than losing ones, then use the strategy I illustrated here.

Of course, if your goal is simply to be able to boast to everyone how you can beat the casino 80 percent of the time, and the money is really secondary, then this strategy is undeniably the best one for you.

As for me, the secret of success is holding true to Expert Strategy. In the end, we know the important things are picking the right games to play, playing the right strategy and knowing what to expect.

The goal is winning money and having fun. Like the NFL Patriots, who cares if you win $2,500 18 times if you lose $50,000 once?