Be careful of games with dramatic line movement

Oct 8, 2002 8:27 AM

   It's known as the trap, a game YOU like at the opening

number only to see MY team bet down by supporters I wish would choose the other side.

   Thursday night's Clemson-Florida State game was a perfect example of what NOT to do. This can be said with assurance because I did it.

   The Seminoles opened as a 17-point favorite, which I felt was about right. I was leaning toward Clemson, but so were enough wise-guys to make the line plummett to 13.5.

   This would have been a great "middle" (taking FSU at 13.5 and Clemson at 17). But, no, I had to go with my gut feeling and take the Tigers at +13.5.

   Fortunately the loss was on the website and not in the wallet, but it just shows why I don't classify myself as a wise-guy. As for the rest of the weekend, finally an in-state made some noise.

   Betting involving Nevada college teams was basically under the radar screen until Saturday’s Nevada-UNLV clash at Sam Boyd Stadium.

   "We really got hurt by that game," Wild Wild West race and sports director Chris Davis said of UNLV's 21-17 victory. "To see the line move from three for Reno to three against was really something. I think in some places it may hit four."

   The UNLV-Nevada result was similar to what occurred in the pros between Tennessee and Washington. The host Titans opened as a three-point favorite and moved up to five in most venues.

   "I was able to get it as six," Davis said. "I wish I had more money to bet on that one. The public really cashed in with both those games."

   The public also had a great opportunity to win big in the major league playoffs, with all but one matchup (St.Louis-Arizona Game 2) going over the posted run total.

   "Rarely in the playoffs do so many games go over the total," Davis said. "Defense and good pitching usually dominates in postseason and keeps the games below the number. After awhile, people were just betting the over."

   The underdogs were a perfect 3-0 in the divisional finals, with a chance to sweep if San Francisco were to defeat the Braves in Monday night's Game 5 at Atlanta.

   "Seeing the Yankees lose was really something," Davis said. "I think all the new blood really injects life into baseball. It's a good thing, especially for those who like to play the dogs."

 

MAJOR LINE MOVES

NFL (players 2-1)

Game   Open   Close   Result   Adv

Was-Tenn   T-5.5 -4.5   W 31-14   P

TB-Atl T-2.5   A-1.0   T 20-6   H

NYG-Dal   D-1.0   N-1.5   N 21-17   P

 

NCAA (players 6-4)

Game   Open   Close   Result   Adv

NV-UNLV   N-3.0   LV-3.0   LV 24-17   P

Clem-FSU   F-17.0   -13.5 F 48-31        H

Ark-Tenn   T-13.0   -11.0 T 41-38        P

Hou-TCU   T-14.0   -11.0 T 34-17        H

SJ St.-SMU   SJ-3.0   -6.5   SJ 34-23        P

Haw-B St.   B-1.5   -3.5   B 58-31        P

W. Mi-Buf   W-13.5   -11.0 W 31-17        H

MTN-Ark St.   M-20.5   -18.0 A 13-7   P

Conn-Mia   M-46.0   -43.0 M 48-14        P

LA Laf-LSU   LS-29.5   -27.5 LS 48-0 H

P-players, H-house.