Exclusive Content   Join Now

Baffert, Lukas make Derby simple

Apr 22, 2003 4:50 AM

With the Kentucky Derby just two weeks away, the question is what to do, what to do. Last year we tried putting too much into all the hype and came up with zilch. This time, I’m keeping it simple.

It’s a jockey and trainer race if there ever was one and the trainers that own it are Bob Baffert and D Wayne Lukas. As of last week it looked like Lukas was about to be shut out, but he pulled another from of his bag of tricks. Lukas put over Scrimshaw in the Lexington, a race he has used in recent years to get to the Derby. He will be a must use, if only for the Lukas angle.

You just have to key on Empire Maker and back him up with the Baffert’s Peace Rules (Frankel’s second horse) and Scrimshaw. The only other horses I will use in the mix will be Buddy Gil, Funny Cide and Ten Most Wanted. Empire Maker will be coming up to the KD just sitting on a monster performance. EM has increased his figures in each of his last three races including a big 111 beyer in his last while not really cranked up.

The race I really don’t know about is the Illinois Derby in which Ten Most Wanted ran a huge 109. This guy had never broken a 100 beyer. Also strange was that the horse running second Fund Of Funds ran a 105 and his best prior to that was 92. My gut reaction is that this race was bogus.

A horse that is really getting overlooked is Kafwain, ridden by the red hot Pat Val and trained by Baffert. This guy was the Derby favorite for months and has run a very consistent 100+ beyers in his last four races. So the way I see it is Empire on top, with Baffert/Lukas, and then anyone’s guess if you want to stretch it out to super’s.

This will be my last Derby report. I’m heading to Louisville and hopefully drinking mint juleps in the winners circle.

Rampart leads Derby comps

Rampart race and sports director Eric St. Clair suggested that it would be helpful to run some kind of comp chart for all the books in Las Vegas. I think it’s a great idea and we are in the process of getting this together. In the meantime since it was his idea, I will give you his comp structure.

Eric says Rampart is leading the way in comps, giving customers $1 for every $30 wagered. Eric said there is no better deal in the city and welcomes bettors to come out, pick up players card and reap the benefits.

Baseball’s winning angles

Thus far, favorites have had some success going approximately 166-112. The totals are really close. Early the OVER was 37-16 but things have really evened out. Now, it’s about 139-128 for the OVER.

The big money maker is taking the plus 1½ runs at even money or plus money. That category is 29-21, and a lot of these bets were plus 40-50-60. At $100 a game you would be in very good shape. This has always been a good play and should continue to pay off. On April 12, that play went 5-0!

One of the best plays is the streak. We still haven’t seen the big one, but some of the best have involved the Giants and Royals.

Also, betting against the Brewers and Tigers have been profitable. So watch those +1½ run line bets and keep a close eye on winning and losing streaks.

That’s two ways of keeping your head above water until football.