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Deuces aren’t always wild!

Oct 20, 2003 11:41 PM

One question that’s always been a curiosity to me is the question of whether deuces are a good bet on a ticket or not. For instance, given a bankroll of $100, and the intention of hitting a solid six, is it better to play $2.50 on a $1 six and three deuces, or is it better to stick to straight $1 six spots?

With the power of modern personal computers, we can now answer this question! I ran a simulation with these rules: Each player has a $100 bankroll, and each player plays until either broke or until he hits a solid six. I ran a total of 200,000 simulations, with 100,000 players playing a six and three deuces and 100,000 players playing straight $1 sixes.

We know from previous experience that playing the deuces will just about double our frequency of winners, which will presumably keep us in playing money and thus let us play longer. Unfortunately, this somewhat naive analysis fails to take into account the price of the ticket, which of course is two and one half times the cost of the straight ticket. Out of the 100,000 players playing deuces, 1411 of them succeeded in hitting solid sixes before going broke. Of those who stuck to straight sixes, 2453 of them hit solid sixes. This means that by sticking to six spots, and eschewing the two spots, you almost DOUBLE your chances of success before going broke!

When I ran the same simulation using eight spots, and an eight with four deuces, the results were even more dramatic. 1398 players playing deuces hit a 7/8 or more before going broke, while 2592 players hit a 7/8 or more while playing straight eights.

These results shouldn’t be too surprising, I guess. In the case of the six and three deuces, 60% of your wagers go toward producing wins of $6, while in the case of the eights, 67% of your wagers do. As we saw last week, you just can’t end up money ahead in the long run by playing ones, twos, threes or even fours!

Well that’s it for this week. Good Luck! Catch you in the lounge.