Saber's Horse Selections for Thur., April 10, 2008

April 10, 2008 8:11 PM
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SANTA ANITA

Race 1

Trainer John Sadler appears to have found a good spot for No. 1, Cointreau, as he gave him a nice sprint prep for this flat mail on the grass – it looks like "go" time. Trainer Julio Canani claimed No. 2, Minister Blair, out of his last race, which was 1˝ miles on the grass and now bumps this 7yo up in class and turns him back to a much better distance; jockey Tyler Baze knows this guy well. We will use both in the early double and the early pick four.

Race 2

No. 2, Gloria Jeanne, just missed in her last on the drop down at 4-5; the price will be much better today and she drops another notch trying to cash. No. 3, Sting’n In the Rain, looked like she had the race won in her last but went wide and longshot Tricky Vivian came up the inside for the win. This will be her third race off the layoff and it could be cap-and-gown time. No. 4, Raise Again, was a length behind Sting’n in her last start and now gets a weight break as the bug boy Campos takes over – this girl will be coming with a late run. No. 6, Go Cardinal Gal, is in her second race cycle of her comeback and gets the hot Rosario in the irons.

Selections: 2-3-4-6

$2 doubles ($16 total)

Race 1: 1-2

Race 2: 2-3-4-6

Race 3

The Jeff Mullins trained No. 1, Applaud Dubai, looks ready for a big run even with low profile jock Almeida riding. Her 5f work on April 1 screams, "I am ready!" No. 5, Queen Holly, ran right behind Dubai in her last and her jockey Martin Garcia has been hot the last seven days with five wins out of 20 mounts. The No. 6, Madame Kiawah, is the other Mullins in this race and he is going from a sprint to a route – Mullins is 23 percent with the move, we will use all three in the pick four.

Selections: 1-5-6

Race 4

This looks like a four horse race with No. 1, Intouchable, who ran third on this 6˝ furlong down hill course in her first start and her trainer Richard Mandella, is 25 percent with second time starters; the only drawback is the rail post. No. 3, Perfect Quality, ran well in her only turf try but that was at Hollywood Park going 6 furlongs. She has a big time work on April 7 and also gets another hot jock in Pedroza. No. 5, Sydney’s Secret, is a 5yo that has not run since last May but sneaky trainer Canani appears to have her ready to run a big race at a price. No. 8, Burnt, gets the best of the post positions, is back on the turf and sprinting, and will be making a big wide late move that could mow them down late.

Selections: 1-3-5-8

$1 pick 4 (total $96):

Race 1: 1-2

Race 2: 2-3-4-6

Race 3: 1-5-6

Race 4: 1-3-5-8

Race 5

This one looks like a crap shoot, so we will tread lightly. No. 2, Ann’s Plan, ran big in her first start of the year and her first on this circuit for trainer Sise, and if able to improve off of that effort she will be hard to deny for a trainer that has won with two out of his last four starters. The No. 10, Kilmartin Hal, gets a big rider upgrade with Talamo in place of the low profile Arias. We will use the 2-10 in doubles and a late pick four.

Race 6

Let’s take a shot in this race and single No. 5, Point Proven, at 8-1 in the late pick four. She gets back on the dirt at 7 furlongs, a distance that will be perfect for his style. We will use several in the double starting with No. 1, Inspiration Within, who has won at seven panels; No. 4, Amybelle, who exits the same race as Point Proven and won at this distance in her maiden breaker on this track Feb 29; No. 6, Concettina, won her only race when she closed like a rocket at 6 furlongs and could be set for another big run with M. Baze taking over for Sutherland; No. 8, Quickly Gone, won her first start for the ultra-red hot Carla Gaines, who has now won with nine out of her last 11 starters, wow. This girl won in a slow time but is a must use. We will use all in the double from race five and make a dime superfecta box with all five.

Selections: 1-4-5-6-8

$2 double ($20 total):

Race 5: 2-10

Race 6: 1-4-5-6-8

10˘ superfecta box ($12 total):

1-4-5-6-8

Race 7

The afore mentioned Carla Gaines has the speed ball No. 4, Silver Moonshine, but she will have to contend with another speed ball in here No. 2, Lake Marina, and also No. 5 ,Princess Zoro, could come out running. These three could run each other into the ground unless one gets away on an easy lead. The closer could be No. 1, Green Lyons, who is from France for trainer Neil Drysdale, who clicks at 33 percent with foreign invaders. Plus, the rail post is winning at a 23 percent clip in these turf routes. The other closer in the race is No. 3, Musical High, who has not been seen since last August at Del Mar, but Paddy Gallagher brought this one back last year in what looks like an identical situation – he had not run since Del Mar and then came back in April with the same jock Espinoza and they got the win.

Selections: 1-3-4

Race 8

This is why you should not be a horse owner unless you own several oil wells or about 50 Mickey "D’s." They paid $575K for No. 12, Go All In, and now he is a 4yo gelding and still a maiden and is dropping in for 25k; I guess it’s a good write off. If this guy has three good legs left he wins, if not it looks like No. 11, Carona Time, who showed good speed in a flat mile in his first route and held well for the place. He has a very good work since that race and should be sitting on his best in this, his third race off the layoff.

Selections: 11-12

$2 pick 4 ($24 total)

Race 5: 2-10

Race 6: 5

Race 7: 1-3-4

Race 8: 11-12

 

BAY MEADOWS

RACE 1

Our only hope for some kind of payoff today at the Bay is to hit one of the two Pick Fours, and we could get a fair payoff since there is no R. Baze today. The first three races look like good for jockeys Kaenel and Alvarado, so we will key on those two and hope for the best.

$1 pick 4 ($16 total):

Race 1: 5-6

Race 2: 1-6

Race 3: 1-2-3-4-6

Race 4: 5

$1 pick 4 ($20 total):

Race 1: 1-2-5-6

Race 2: 6

Race 3: 3

Race 4: 3-4-5-6-7

Race 5

If jockey Kaenel has a good day, then we will have a good day. Here, he appears to have the horse in this race with No. 2, Stella’s Posada, as he rides this one on the big drop for Hollendorfer. His main dangers are No. 5, Parisian, and No. 6, Holy Lark. We will play a single and use all three in the late Pick Four. Single No. 2 and use 2-5-6.

Race 6

No. 1, Salt Flat Speed, is flat speed and will try and take these on a merry trip wire-to-wire. No. 3, Avalanche, gets blinkers and a big drop in class. No. 6, Yorkville Kid, goes from a turf route to a dirt sprint and could be legged up for this easier spot. We will single the No. 1 and use all three on another ticket. Single 1 use 1-3-6

Race 7

No. 2, Sky Wolf, gets his second start off the layoff and a much better post – this one looks ready for his best. No. 3, Stephen Bruce, seems well spotted for a top effort as is dropped into an action spot. Plus, he gets back on the grass, won last year on this course and has four wins and three second in twelve tries at this distance on the grass. No. 6, Awesome Speed, is the speed and will try to steel it. We will key on the 2 and 3 on one ticket and use the 2-3-6 on another.

Race 8

No. 1, Diamond Command, takes a big drop for Hollendorfer but loses Alvarado. No. 5, Runaway Wagon, is stretched out off a nice win on the drop but has never routed but his sprint numbers are much the best and he could have a big pace edge despite losing R. Baze. No. 6, Royal Wager, will be flying down the lane late and could run them all down at a good price.

Selections: 1-5-6

$1 Pick Four (total $27):

Race 5: 2

Race 6: 1-3-6

Race 7: 2-3-6

Race 8: 1-5-6

$1 Pick Four (total $18):

Race 5: 2-5-6

Race 6: 1

Race 7: 2-3

Race 8: 1-5-6

Always check for late scratches and changes, and adjust accordingly.