Dawgs much safer
avoiding road trips

Dec 16, 2003 5:19 AM

The road is a dangerous place to be these days and the NFL’s highways are no different.

Seattle has suffered six consecutive losses on the road. Minnesota made it four straight in Chicago. Roadkill is blanketing the road like snow on a New England football field. And it isn’t getting any better for the visitors against the point spread.

Home teams are 21-10 ATS over the last two weeks, a 67 percent success rate. And the homies aren’t just a flash in the pan. Over the last six weeks, clubs playing at home are 54-32-4 (63 percent).

"Forgetaboutit!" You may as well plan on staying home for the holidays. The home team success usually means disaster for the dawgs, who are usually on the road. The dogs have put their tails between their legs the last two weeks, covering the spread in only 11 of 31 total games.

Oh well, life goes on for bettors like myself who love to receive, when it comes to the points!

Falcons (+6) at Bucs: Peyton Manning brought the Michael Vick hoopla level down a notch. Tampa Bay has won two straight for the first time all year but the Bucs can’t score enough points to get me excited enough to lay the points here. Offense averaging under 16 points in last five home games! FALCONS.

Chiefs (—2½) at Vikes: Home dawgs 15-4 over last six weeks. Minnesota looked tremendous their last two games in the Dome. But if you can’t handle a rookie QB making his first start, how are you going to handle Trent Green? CHIEFS.

Pats (—3) at Jets: This game has overtime written all over it. Tom Brady has never lost an overtime game and Pats have won 10 straight. Both are overdue for a loss. JETS.

Dolphins (—3) at Bills: Dolphins are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a snowflake. Could run into some ice and snow plus a stingy Bills D. Buffalo has won the money at home last couple of games. Travis Henry has put a few super games together. Bills will win straight up if he can manage another here. BILLS.

Ravens (—3) at Browns: Cleveland has more players on injured reserve than any other NFL team. But they won’t give up, even though they can’t win. Browns covered in Denver last week. Jamal Lewis ran for NFL single game record against Cleveland earlier this season. Browns D has improved since then and will avenge the massacre. BROWNS.

Skins (+4) at Bears: Rex Grossman passed his first test. Stats weren’t great but no interceptions. If he can limit the turnovers, the Bears D will take it from there. Chicago has been the better team over the last month. BEARS.

Bengals (+7) at Rams: St. Louis has won six straight but still not trustworthy in this spot. Rams didn’t cover against Seattle and barely hung on to win money at Cleveland. Bulger throwing really well but Kitna can hang with him here. Rudi Johnson and Corey Dillon as a team can hang with Marshall Faulk. ­­BENGALS.

Lions (+9) at Panthers: Detroit trying for an NFL record 23 straight road losses. Panthers clinched division last week. Lions may lose, but look for a cover. Panthers aren’t exactly blowing opponents away. LIONS.

Saints (+2) at Jags: Jacksonville hasn’t lost a home game since Week 8. Saints have been inconsistent all season. Give the edge to a home team whose QB and D continue to improve each week. JAGS.

Giants (+5) at Cowboys: Dallas won by 3 in OT in Week 2. But Parcells’ charges have come a long way since then. With exception of last home game versus Miami, the Cowboys have played great at home. G-men have lost six straight, half of those on the road. Lets face it, with the appearance of Jesse Palmer, Fassel may be waving the white flag! COWBOYS.

Titans (—7) at Texans: I’m not the biggest Dave Ragone fan, but three of his longer, better passes were dropped at Tampa Bay. Billy Volek looked good enough filling in for Steve McNair that the Titans will be favored by plenty no matter who starts. Texans has looked so bad the last two weeks they can’t help but be undervalued. Take it to the bank! TEXANS.

Chargers (+4) at Steelers: Neither team playing for anything other than pride. Have to say the Chargers looked a little better over the last four weeks, playing Packers, Cincy and KC tough in losing efforts and beating Lions on road. S. DIEGO.

49ers (+5) at Eagles: Niners piled up over 500 yards last week in the snow at Cincy. Won’t do that again in Philly but at least they’ll be used to the cold. Garcia and Barlow should provide enough offense to win a cover. NINERS.

Cards (+13) at Seahawks: Seattle can’t win on the road. Arizona has lost four straight themselves away from home. This game is in Seattle, which thrives in its brand new outdoor yard. SEAHAWKS.

Broncos (+5) at Colts: Peyton Manning & Co. can pile plenty of points onto the scoreboard. But they also have a tendency to give them up. Colts have allowed nearly 26 per game over the last 9. Denver will score 26 to 30 and cover. BRONCOS.

Packers (—5) at Raiders: Raiders have been a comedy of errors all season. They’re in the national spotlight for their last home game. Winning last two home games would mend a few of the many wounds at Coliseum. RAIDERS.

Last week: 9-6

Season: 113-104-5