Derby confuses me

Apr 15, 2008 7:00 PM

Getting Rich with Saber by Richard Saber | With the Kentucky Derby less than three weeks away, the last two major prep races were run this past Saturday. All they did is make things even more confusing.

Pyro, most everyone’s second choice, was a no show in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in his first try on the Polytrack. He was far back early and never did get untracked at even money odds.

Monba and Cowboy Cal, which finished 1-2, will give super trainer Todd Pletcher two entrants in the Kentucky Derby. It looked like he would not have any, but he reached into his bag of tricks and pulled out the rabbit. This guy Pletcher is amazing.

Visionaire, another touted with a big shot at the Derby, broke from the far outside post position and really got hung out to dry. His jockey J Lezcano could not get him tucked in, but did manage fifth in a good try. If in the Derby on that first Saturday in May, Visionaire may be a good longshot to use in the exotics.

In the Arkansas Derby the California horse Gayego tracked a fast pace and held on for a big dirt win. Now he’s on his way to Louisville for trainer Paulo Lobo, who can get a horse ready for a big race. I don’t think this guy can get the Derby distance, but he will add some speed to the lineup.

You never know what can happen when 20 horses break from the gate. Gayego is one game horse as now has three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts. His Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith also knows what it takes to win the Derby on a longshot. Just ask the connections of Giacomo who paid $102.60 with Smith in the saddle.

Trainer Steve Asmussen had a bad weekend with Pyro running up the track and his highly touted King’s Silver Son doing the same in the Arkansas Derby. As for Pyro, Asmussen used the same old excuse that the polytrack was not to his liking. We will see in the Derby if that’s the case and he is able to put in that big late kick getting back to the dirt.

As for the Derby, the only real clear cut favorite is Big Brown, who just could be a monster in the making. He looks to be a monster now, but he will have to break a long jinx by winning the Derby with only three lifetime starts and at a short price.

Baseball losing its -200’s

The major leagues were very slow last week with only one game showing a favorite at -200 or higher. That was Saturday when the Indians were -220 over the A’s and Oakland won 7-3.

There have been 12 bets for me to date betting $50 on the money line and betting to win $50 on the +1½ run line. The play has gone 7-5 straight up, 8-4 on the +1½ run line. My net profit was $601.

There were some big streaks going into this Sunday, but I remember what happened last year almost at the same time. Early in the season when there were some big streaks going on, they all ended on a Sunday. Well, the following Sunday I passed on all the streaks and they all won.

This past Sunday, the Mets lost at home to Milwaukee after having a four-game winning streak. The Brewers had been on a four-game losing streak. The Nats broke their nine-game losing streak and the Diamondbacks lost at home to end their eight-game win streak.

The A’s lost at Cleveland thus breaking their five-game win streak and halting the Tribe’s three-game losing skid. The Twins lost at KC putting an end to their three-game win streak and halting the Royals three-game losing streak. Thus, all streaks ended in one day. Wow!

Some great generals have said you must learn your lessons from the past. If the past is correct, you can bet the streaks will continue this coming Sunday.

Don’t forget our website with daily plays along with my daily horse selections from Santa Anita and Bay Meadows. I also will be covering the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.