Floyd by early knockout
April 28, 2015 3:04 AM
by Alan Berg
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao is finally here.
Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are ecstatic as veteran industry experts are saying it has the potential to have Super Bowl-like money on the fighters. That’s not including the Super Bowl prop handle but imagine how much money Vegas takes on the side of the Super Bowl!
Fantasy Boxing is actually available to play on Kountermove.com. They started a fantasy game weeks ago involving other fights but have a new game that locks out on Thursday, April 30. There is currently a $5 game and a $0.50 game. Both lock on Thursday because of two fights starting.
Here is the list of fights for the Kountermove game:
Thursday, April 30
ESPN Thursday Night Fights (Palms Casino Las Vegas)
Ashley Theophane vs. Mahonri Montes
Fox Sports 1 Golden Boy Live (Fantasy Springs Casino India, Calif.)
Mercito Gesta vs. Carlos Molina
Friday, May 1
Friday Night Knockout on truTV (Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas)
Takahiro Ao vs. Raymundo Beltran
Mikael Zewski vs. Konstantin Ponomarev
Saturday, May 2
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao
Jesse Hart vs. Mike Jimenez
Chris Pearson vs. Said El Harrak
Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Gamalier Rodriguez
For those who have never played fantasy boxing let me give you a crash course in scoring.
Fighters receive points as follows: Strike landed (.5 point), Knockdown (10 points), Any KO or TKO victory (100 points), any decision win (50 points).
Picks for the fights (salaries are from Kountemove.com):
(from my previous boxing article online only on April 10)
Floyd Mayweather ($5,200): The fight that should have happened years ago is finally here and I will stick to my guns. Floyd Mayweather is not the No.1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by accident, he is an extremely underrated fighter, based mainly on his brash lifestyle.
Manny Pacquiao is tailor made for “Money” if Pacman is aggressive. I believe both men truly need a knockout to win this fight. What I am trying to say is if Pacquiao stays back, Floyd wins by decision. If he comes after him and pursues like he should, a knockout will happen.
Manny can get Floyd if he constantly pursues him but Mayweather will be ready. I call a left uppercut drops Manny in round three and IF Pacman gets up, Floyd finishes him by TKO that round. Projection: KO3.
Diamonds in the Rough
Raymundo Beltran ($4,900): Beltran is that gritty veteran that just hasn’t be able to win a world title. First he traveled over to Scotland and fought to a draw with WBO lightweight champion Ricky Burns. It was a fight that Beltran clearly won by decision. He later got a second shot against the much more talented Terence Crawford and lost a lopsided decision. Now with this is third and possibly last shot at the same WBO lightweight title against Takahiro Ao, look for Beltran to have the night of his life. Projection: Unanimous decision.
Mahonri Montes ($4,300): When you look at fight choices on Kountermove you have two options. The first is mismatch fights (Jesse Hart and Vasyl Lomachenko) or tough calls (Mayweather-Pacquaio, Ponomarev-Zewski). Montes doesn’t have as many 10 round fights as Ashley Theophane, who gave current star Danny Garcia a tough fight, but he could be the type of fighter to sneak up on Theophane. Montes has power, Theophane does not. Projection: TKO9.
My fight pick
If Manny fights that style I can’t see this going the distance.
If Mayweather doesn’t catch Pacquiao then he will be forced to the ropes and will take more punishment than he has ever taken his entire career. I hope this is the case for all the people paying top dollar for this fight. But let’s analyze my KO prediction.
Mayweather is around 5-1 to 9-1 by knockout. That 9-1 is an incredible price. Pacquiao has been knocked out three times in his career.
You can pick Mayweather to win by KO in Round 1, Round 2, and Round 8, whatever rounds you want. The same bets can be purchased for Pacquiao. If you are feeling real confident in a KO, take a three round block of Mayweather early and Pacquiao late.
I plan on going for Mayweather in Rounds 3, 4 and 5 and taking Pacquiao in Rounds 9, 10, 11.
For the less brave there is an over/under round prop of 11.5 rounds.
Alan Berg has 10-plus years of experience at Las Vegas sports books and prior to moving to Las Vegas covered sports for the Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Follow him on Twitter: @vegasberserker Contact him at ABerg@GamingToday.com.