Machida looks to bounce back at UFC Fight Night

June 27, 2015 12:01 PM
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After a crushing one-sided defeat to Luke Rockhold, Lyoto Machida looks to reaffirm his position as one of the top UFC middleweights in the World. Tonight from Hollywood, Fla. is UFC Fight Night on FS1 as Machida takes on the dangerous striker Yoel 'Son of God' Romero.

On paper this is a close matchup, No.4 ranked Machida is the more well rounded fighter but Romero has that one punch power that makes him one strike away from ending a fight. Machida is listed as the favorite anywhere from -150 to -190 and on Kountermove.com he comes with a $5,400 salary while No. 6 ranked Romero is also a high salary at $5,200.

Had Romero been lower, he might have been a recommended play. Machida didn't look very good against Rockhold, but that might have been more because of Rockhold's ability versus Machida's performance. Regardless, Machida to me is a risky play in the betting world and fantasy world.

With that said, Romero looked gassed in his last fight against Tim Kennedy and that was a controversial win for 'SOG.' My advice is to stay away from this fight, there are better guys to play from a betting and fantasy perspective.

On to the picks (salaries used are from Kountermove.com):

Captain Obvious

Alex Oliveira ($5,400) -- This is a giant step up for his opponent Joe Merritt being that Merritt is 6-0 with all wins by knockout and Oliveria has won 78% of his fights by KO/TKO. This fight will definitely have fireworks. While Merritt could surprise and thrust his name into known status, the stage might be too big against someone as skilled as Oliveria. Projection: KO2.

Diamonds in the Rough

Eddie Gordon ($4,700) -- Gordon is that guy that hasn't lived up to the potential (losing two straight after winning The Ultimate Fighter) but he is very capable of winning this fight. Patrick Cummins made Antonio Carlos Jr. his punching bag, Gordon finds the mark in this one and gets back on track. Projection: KO3.

Thiago Santos ($4,800) -- If you look at Santos UFC profile it says 100% striking. My kind of MMA fighter. Watch as the high kick leads Santos to victory in this one against the newcomer Steve Bosse. Projection: UD3.