Fantasy football success is about balance
August 25, 2015 3:07 AM
by Alan Berg
As I mentioned last week, running backs used to be the dominating factor but now it’s more of a balance. The last few years it seems a team wins with a Pittsburgh Steelers-type fantasy lineup of a strong-armed QB, a touchdown scoring RB and a playmaking 1,000 yard, double digit touchdown WR.
Most of you, I am sure, already know this but in the history of fantasy football it was possible to win with fullbacks. Those who played 15-18 years ago remember the names, Leroy Hoard, Zack Crockett and Mario Bates, who scored from the 1-yard line. It was a farce and one I corrected over the years in my league that I have been running for almost 20 years since my junior league of high school.
Now let’s take a look at running backs being drafted after 80th overall ADP according to FantasyPros.com.
Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers (No. 100; No. 37 RB): Melvin Gordon. Ahh, Flash Gordon has so much potential I invested a No.3 rookie draft pick on him. What scares me is he could be a big play kind of player yet capable of having 12 carries for 18 yards one week and bouncing back with a 24-231-2 the next. He might be a boom or bust kind of back and for fantasy football playoff teams that’s a scary thought.
Back to Woodhead, the fact is he will be a PPR dynamo. He has great hands and Chargers QB Phillip Rivers trusts him. Woodhead also is a gem in pass protection. If you get him use him for six weeks then trade him. Projection: 58 receptions, 547 yards, 7 TDs; 217 yards rushing, 2TDs.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans (No. 102; No. 38 RB): Are you kidding me? The No. 38th back off the board! Listen, I get it Foster is a risky proposition because he might not even come back this year. But the upside is getting a Top 3 RB down the stretch and for the fantasy postseason. The 27th back off the board on Fantasy Pros is LeGarrette Blount, I would take Foster before him. If you get a great back, take Foster before you take average guys at the RB spot. Projection: Could put you over the top for the playoffs so take the risk.
Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 167; No. 56 RB): While the Jaguars have essentially gift wrapped the starting job to rookie draft pick T.J. Yeldon, Robinson finished strong down the stretch in 2014. With no real offensive firepower, mainly due to the Jags being so young, Robinson had moments of success (around 110 yards per game from Week 7-9 and averaged 4.56 ypc in seven weeks before injury). If Yeldon falters, Robinson will be the back to own in Jacksonville and not a bad late round filer. Projection: 112 carries, 598 yards, 3 TDs; 22-294-3 (value skyrockets with injury or benching of Yeldon).
Alan Berg has 10-plus years of experience at Las Vegas sports books and prior to moving to Las Vegas covered sports for the Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Follow him on Twitter: @vegasberserker Contact him at ABerg@GamingToday.com.