Altuve has the goods to take home a USFantasy baseball exacta
April 04, 2017 3:04 AM
by Alan Berg
USFantasy baseball season has begun; let’s take a look at Tuesday’s lineups.
Prop No. 1 Hitters
Cubs 3B Kris Bryant is your opening 9/2 favorite with the top longshot of Indians SS Francisco Lindor at 9-1. No. 2-7 sets up like this: Astros 2B Jose Altuve (5-1), Rockies OF Charlie Blackmon (6-1), Cubs 1B Anthony Rizzo, Mariners DH Nelson Cruz, Rockies SS Trevor Story and Mariners 2B Robinson Cano open at 7-1.
Before we breakdown our WIN and EXACTA play let’s talk scoring. USFantasy baseball scoring is pretty easy: Single equal 1 point; Double, 2; Triple, 3; Home Run, 4; Run Scored, 1; Run Batted In (RBI), 1; Base on Balls (BB), 1 point; Stolen Base, 2.
The two best bodies of work against the pitchers they are facing today are Altuve vs. Mariners pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma and Rizzo vs. Cardinals P Adam Wainwright. Altuve has a .421 batting average with six doubles, one home run and seven RBIs. Rizzo comes in at .306 with 11 hits, five RBIs, one HR and three walks in his time against the St. Louis hurler.
I believe you should select your WIN bet from these two, baseball is very much a game of numbers and it’s the best thing we have to go on to make an educated selection. Now when it comes to USFantasy I consistently talk about value. We have Altuve at 5-1 on the morning line; I would bet on him if he goes off at 7-1 or higher.
Rizzo has solid numbers against Wainwright but I would want a little more bang for the buck here at only 6-1. I would want around 11-1 or higher to make a WIN bet. If both hitters go off over the value recommended play I would favor Altuve. Make sure you always analyze the pool to make an appropriate sized wager so as not to kill your odds.
Now looking at the exacta, as I said earlier, Altuve and Rizzo are the two standouts, but for the chance of making a higher score I am going to take the Astros second baseman in an EXACTA BOX and leave out Rizzo. I like the idea of a three-batter box, but feel free to key Altuve in a BOX if the pools are high enough to make a good chunk of cash.
Now the question becomes who to pair with the Houston dynamo? First, I leave Bryant out only because he has below his average marks against Wainwright in a limited sample size and he will be a popular play. Next up is Charlie Blackmon, he has a 0-3 and two strikeouts in his career vs. Brewers hurler Zach Davies; pass. Now we are down to Cruz, Story, Cano and Lindor.
Nelson Cruz has been awful against Astros pitcher Lance McCullers, sporting a .143 batting average. Trevor Story has never faced Davies, Robinson Cano has a small sample size of 14 at bats with six singles and five strikeouts and Francisco Lindor is 0-3 vs. Rangers P Martin Perez.
Based on these facts, let’s roll with Story as it’s a wild card with Davies and Lindor since of his three outs none of them are strikeouts. EXACTA BOX (Altuve, Story and Lindor) is my advice.
Prop No. 2 Pitchers
This week let’s just give out the plays. Take shot on Zach Davies, opening line 7-1. If he approaches 10-1 or higher my exacta play would be EXACTA BOX (Lance McCullers, Davies, Diamondbacks P Patrick Corbin). It would be a nice payout, taking out Giants P Johnny Cueto, Cubs P Jake Arrieta and Indians P Carlos Carrasco to name a few.
Also available now: Cubs-Cardinals Run Line Prop; NBA and NHL daily, NASCAR this weekend, The Masters (closes Thursday at 6 a.m.); UFC 210 Cormier vs. Johnson (plus four other fights).