Don’t balk during short-term droughts
December 09, 2018 8:39 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
I have noticed there is the common tendency of some service traders, when losing, to become hesitant in making more trades. For example, I know someone with a trading service who pulls up once he loses for the day.
Now, my feeling is that if your strategy has an edge, you should continue trading until the markets are closed.
The same applies to sports betting. I know someone who has a winning formula, but also goes into a conservative mode when he is having a losing week or month. The ”trader”and the ”sports bettor” are both successful at what they do in the long-term. However, I have to question them as to why they are so conservative after a losing time period.
Neither one of these guys know each other; in addition, both of them actually told me an eerily similar story recently. They said that they begin to question their own methods after a few weeks of losing. I know that both of have been doing their own respective occupations for years; and each have made thousands of decisions per year.
My response to each of them is that ”if you have never had a losing year, why would you question your own methods?” I received very interesting, but similar answers from both of them.
Each year they have to tweak their own models, because things change from season-to-season. Therefore, after noticing a pattern, they have to go back and review the model, and determine what is causing change to the research or the handicapping. It could be anything from a very small detail, to something larger, such as a rule-change, which, by the way, noticeably affected scoring in the NBA this year.
Yes, the bookmakers will know about the changes too. However, this is new to them as well; and therefore, whoever can adjust quicker gets the money. So far, early on this season, it has been the advantage sports bettors who have been able to notice the patterns in the markets; and each night, they are waiting with anticipation for the overnight lines to come out.
I am noticing this with my NFL handicapper this year as well. We have won only a few units for the season. However, I believe that if we had played the first-halves on these very same games, we would be up over a dozen units. I actually spoke to him Monday night about this issue, and we will be looking into capitalizing on this in the future.
The bottom line is that I feel like I am constantly learning. I never have ”know it all ego” and I openly look and listen for new nuggets of wisdom every single day. I believe you should do the same.