Wagering on the Winds of Change thanks to overreactions
September 12, 2018 3:11 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
This is the season of hurricanes and tropical storms, which usually do major damage to sports bettors’ wallets. Hurricane Florence is the latest storm predicted to hit the Carolinas this weekend; and the immediate reaction is to play under on all of the games in and around that area.
I love to let the public and the guys who try to middle games (bet both ways on a game hoping they get enough line movement for the score to land in the middle) move the games to the point. However, the other side of their move is really the value.
Let’s look at some of the games that may be affected by the storm and have had significant “under” money come in due to this. Maryland/Temple 49.5 down to 45, UNC/C.Florida 54.5 to 51, Charlotte/ODU 43 to 41, Ohio/UVA 43 to 41, App. St./Southern Miss 47 to 45.5, Clemson Ga. Southern 45.5 to 43.5.
What is very important is it will continue to drop during the week as the forecast for the storm’s landfall gets closer and closer. What I plan to do is let these guys continue moving the game toward the under, and then at game time, check the game time forecast and bet over on many of them.
It is not unusual for the public to overreact to these situations. I also love it when they overreact to snow storms. The day of the game comes and everyone turns on the game to see a blanket of white. They cannot wait to bet the under on these types of games.
The artificial grass and synthetically-heated fields, common in today’s stadiums, contribute as well. These surfaces make the cold stuff little more than a pretty background shot for the camera crews. However, what the public does not realize is the wind is really the key element in these situations. The wind is what wreaks havoc on quarterbacks throwing the ball. As long as the wind is calm, after the public moves the game to the under, then guys like me come in and play the over.
This weekend, there are two games that stand out to me. Virginia/Ohio Over 41 and App. St./So. Miss Over 45.5
Last week: 3-0
College record: 4-3-1
I am waiting until closer to game-time, till the bottom falls out, to come in and play the Over.
On the East Coast
Let’s talk briefly about the first NFL week in Atlantic City. The volume was unbelievable and even shocking to me. The lines to wager were 200 deep an hour before the game all across the city.
Many people were even shut out and did not get their bets in. You have to realize you have to get on line much earlier as sports betting is new to AC; and the staff is new as well to the patrons making the wagers.
Every sportsbook should have a scrolling billboard (or at least something in print) with a few lines on it that informs the public how to make a proper wager.
Approximately half of the people have never made a wager in a casino before. What happens is they just ask for the team name, not realizing they have to give the rotation number.
I see big things for NJ and one day I believe they can even overtake Nevada as volume king.