Mahomes' legend grows with each W

Mahomes' legend grows with each W

October 03, 2018 3:11 AM
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Another chapter in the growing legend of Patrick Mahomes was written Monday night as he engineered a come-from-behind, 27-23, win at Denver to keep the Chiefs undefeated. And because sharp money around Las Vegas took the home dog with the Broncos, the closing number had Kansas City -3.5 which now makes the Chiefs the only perfect 4-0 ATS team in the NFL.

“Sharp money took the Broncos +5, +4.5 and +4,” said Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP, Jay Korneagy. “Landing 4 wasn’t ideal for us.”

While Kornegay’s Superbook had a small window to be “middled,” he said most of his parlay risk on the Chiefs was at -4 and -4.5. 

The Chiefs win capped off Week 4 of the NFL which turned out to be a winning weekend for bettors. 

“We were a loser,” said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. “We were going to lose no matter what on Monday night because of (carryover) parlay liability and then we also had a big player bet the Monday night Under (54) so that lost as well.”

The Chiefs stayed Under the total for the first time this season, and so did Mahomes’ TD passes. He only threw one TD pass and now has 14 TD passes through four games, no interceptions, 1,200 yards passing with an incredible 126.5 passer rating. However, the Chiefs also have the worst defense in the league allowing 451 y.p.g which is why the Superbook has them posted 8-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Rams have the highest rating in the NFL and had their Super Bowl odds dropped from 2-to-1 down to 9-to-5 favorites over the weekend.   

The poor Monday night for the sports books was a continuation from a rough Sunday where bettors had their way, especially the sharps.

“Football was kind of blah to finish off the month,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “The Titans was the only game (vs. Eagles) that was solid at killing parlays for us. The 49ers was a helpful cover as well. I think the heavy Sunday favorite combo in the morning with the Patriots, Packers, and Jaguars had the public cashing lots of parlay and teaser tickets.”

That seemed to be the case around the state as favorites went 8-6-1 in Week 4 action with the Over going 9-6. 

It’s also funny to note that the public didn’t give up on the Patriots after they started 1-2. The upstart Dolphins started 3-0 and we’re getting +7 at New England, but the Patriots avoided their first three-game losing streak since 2004 with 38-7 blowout. The Patriots are still the Patriots with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, which is why the Superbook is showing lots of respect with them at 8-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. They started 2017 off at 2-2 as well.  

“Overall, it wasn’t a good day,” said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback of Sunday’s action. “But for the second straight week we were helped out with a great day in New Jersey and an okay day in Mississippi. 

“Our best games on the day ended up being different in all three states,” said Stoneback. “For instance, our best game in New Jersey ended up being the Titans winning (26-23 in overtime), but that ended up being the worst game in Las Vegas because we were loaded on heavy Titans money-line play.”

CG’s Simbal said they had weighted action on the Titans Friday, and on Sunday that was the one of the key games they lost despite having overwhelming ticket counts on the Eagles. He said they were a loser on the day with the “Falcons, Jets, Colts and Bills” all being negative decisions as well. 

“Our best game in Nevada turned out to be the Packers covering just because we had two large casino players taking the Bills,” Stoneback said. “The Raiders winning was our next best due to heavy Browns money-line play and also knocking out risk tied to it from earlier in the day.”

It’s crazy to think the Bills were a popular play, but after they had such a resounding win at Minnesota last week, bettors seemed to like them getting the points which started at +10.5. Green Bay would roll to a ho-hum 22-0 win as 9-point favorites showing once again that pro football is a tough game to bet.

The Raiders 45-42 win over the Browns in overtime was aided by several official calls down the stretch where it seemed the deck was stacked against the Browns. It was the first game this season Cleveland didn’t cover, although +3 was available early in the week. The Superbook closed Raiders -2.5 like most books.

William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said they were a “small to average winner” on the weekend.

Sports books also posted MLB season props on Sunday and Monday.  Superbook assistant manager Jeff Sherman said they did “very well” with their season win totals and player props. The MGM properties have some extended risk on futures. 

“We don’t have a lot of big baseball risk and didn’t win or lose much from season props, but we do lose quite a bit if the Braves win the NL Pennant,” said Stoneback. “We had them at 50-to-1 and actually raised them to 75-to-1 in February.” 

With news that DraftKings lured two prominent Las Vegas sports book directors away, casinos that want to keep their talent are going to have to pony up the cash to compete. Everyone wins in the business.