Vegas Sports Books
November 13, 2018 5:54 PM
by Micah Roberts
One week after losing an estimated $7 million, Nevada sports books bounced back with a strong Week 10 of the NFL where the public collectively came confident to the bet windows dialed in on the same five favored teams.
Three of those lost outright and overall, favorites went 5-8-1 against-the-spread with the underdogs also getting rare outright wins in the Sunday and Monday night isolated games.
“We needed the Giants to win outright to win Monday and we didn’t have much liability on the game because of the Cowboys win Sunday night,’ said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. “Most of the popular parlays ended with the Eagles loss.”
The Giants’ 27-23 win at San Francisco Monday night pushed their record up to 2-7 and paid out +145 on the money line. The G-men have gone 4-1 ATS on the road now, but are 0-4 ATS at home where they welcome the Buccaneers in Week 11.
“The morning was great for us, but we lost all three in the afternoon,” William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said of Sunday’s action. “The Dallas win was a monster. It ended up being our best Sunday of the year.”
The Eagles number ran from -6 to -7.5 against the Cowboys and 91 percent of William Hill’s cash on the game sided with the Eagles so when the Cowboys won 27-20 in an isolated night game situation, it was huge for every book in the state. Jeff Stoneback said the MGM books would have given back 25 percent of the win on the day if the Eagles covered.
The Eagles were one of five favorites the public was all over they were loaded with cash from winning the past three weeks. The Falcons, Saints, Patriots, and Bears were the other four, three losses outright among the five, so the books quickly crushed liability from money-line parlays and teasers.
Perhaps the most impressive pick of the week by the public was the Saints who won their eighth straight and covered their seventh straight in a 51-14 win at Cincinnati. It was the fourth time this season that the Saints scored 40 points or more. The number ran from Saints -4 to -6 and it was almost rubber stamped onto every parlay ticket on the day.
Are the Saints the top-rated team in the NFL in regards to making point-spreads? They certainly could lay claim to it. The Rams lost 45-35 as 1.5-point favorites three weeks ago at New Orleans. The Rams have been the top-rated team all season, but they’re having trouble covering the large numbers -- 1-6 ATS in their last seven. The Saints rating just keeps climbing and they still keep covering.
“I have the Rams still one point better than the Saints,” Kornegay said. “Both the Rams and Chiefs have taken a step backward while the Saints continue to rise.”
We’ll get to see the Rams and Chiefs square off Monday night in Los Angeles after the NFL moved the game from Mexico City Tuesday. The Rams are -4 and the total is 63.5.
The Browns ended a four-game losing streak in a 28-16 win against the popular Falcons (-5) who snapped their three-game win streak. The Patriots pulled Tom Brady halfway through the fourth quarter in a 34-10 loss at Tennessee where the Titans were 6.5-point underdogs. It’s the third road game this season the Patriots have lost by double figures and ends a Patriots six-game win streak (5-1 ATS). It was the most bet game of the morning schedule at William Hill sports books and 91 percent of the tickets were on the Patriots as well as 90 percent of the cash wagered.
“The Browns win was our best by far and then the Titans winning was also right there as a close second,” Stoneback said.
The Bears (-7) had lopsided ticket counts in parlays and the public was correct in their 34-22 home win against the lazy Lions. The most interesting detail from that game was Bears kicker Cody Parkey missing two extra points and two field goals with all four misses hitting off the right crossbar.
“The Chiefs not covering was also good,” Stoneback said. “The crowd was going nuts late when it looked like the Chiefs defense was returning a late TD.”
But the score didn’t happen and the Cardinals got the money in a 26-14 loss at Kansas City. The masses were scared off the large spread that dropped from -16.5 down to -15.5, but they were still a popular play.
The Cardinals are one of the lowest rated teams in the NFL, but the spread is the equalizer and they’re now 5-4 ATS.
The Chiefs dropped to an NFL-best 8-2 ATS, and it’s only because of their lousy defense that they aren’t rated up there with the Rams and Saints.