Ward vs Abraham fight in Super Six Middleweight Tournament

May 15, 2011 6:30 AM

Andre Ward -600 vs Arthur Abraham Over/Under 10½ (Over-125)

Tonight we get an excellent fight in the Super Six Middleweight Tournament that airs on Showtime after the replay of Mosley/Pacquiao.

The Total obviously differs from shop to shop much more than the money-line and it’s obvious that regardless of the book, the Over is a huge favorite. Oddsmakers expect this fight to go to a decision based solely on the fact they believe Ward will win.

My breakdown supports Abraham needing to win this fight by KO. Ward is the much better boxer and if this becomes a technical fight, he’ll be able to coast to a decision.

Abraham’s history supports this. In his 32 wins, 26 have come by KO. On the other hand, Ward has had 13 KO’s in his 23 wins and those came against much lesser competition.

Styles make fights and so far Abraham has had trouble against fighters who stay away and force him to come in where he’s most comfortable and effective.

I expect Ward to get the victory and continue on as the favorite to win this tournament. But, I don’t believe the probability of that happening reflects the price that books are offering. In fact, I took a really close look at the +400 on My recommendation is to Pass on this fight as far as wagering.

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck.

(Vegas-Runner is a professional sports bettor & handicapper in Las Vegas. Follow VR on Twitter.com @Vegasrunner and at Pregame.com)