Cain back to claim his UFC throne
June 09, 2015 3:06 AM
by Alan Berg
At long last the real Heavyweight Champion is back.
Cain Velasquez returns to the octagon this Saturday at UFC 188, live from Mexico City, to defend his championship against the interim Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum.
I can’t believe the betting number on this fight is so low. Velasquez hasn’t fought since October 2013 (a 20-month layoff) first due to a shoulder injury and then in training he tore his meniscus.
The true champ will be licking his chops to establish his dominance in the division, and the fact he is a -450 favorite is mind boggling to me. I am not one to lay $4.50 to win a $1 but at this price it has to be considered. I think the line should be more of the -900 variety.
Cain is better standing; he’s busier and has much more power in his hands. He is superior getting his opposition to the ground, averaging 5.28 takedowns to 1.83 for Werdum. Werdum cannot defend takedowns, only succeeding on 36.67%.
For Kountermove, they have properly made his salary $5,800. If you are familiar with game structure, that is much closer to my number than that of the bookmakers’ betting line.
My advice: find a way to get Velasquez in your lineup, but you will have to be sharp on your underdog plays.
Salaries are from Kountermove.com. Check salaries from other sites.
Henry Cejudo ($5,200): With a betting line at -1000, Cejudo is the pound-for-pound captain. Only $200 over the average, he will get a lot of play in Kountermove games, but you’ll be hurting if he puts on a clinic and you don’t have him. Play it safe as Cejudo will take Camus to Takedown City just east of Suplex City. Projection: KO3.
Diamonds in the Rough
Augusto Montano ($4,700): Montano has won the majority of his fights by KO/TKO. Cathal Pendred has been stopped once before but Montano’s only loss was to Sam Alvey, one of my favorite up and coming UFC fighters. Take Montano. Projection: KO2.
Yair Rodriguez ($4,300) or Angela Hill ($4,200): Fighting in his home country should get Rodriguez up to fight Charles Rosa. Look for him to battle and try his best to grind out a hometown decision. If you are looking for another option, take a look at Angela Hill ($4,200) against Tecia Torres. Hill has a ton of athletic talent and if she has improved she could upset Torres. Projection: (both) UD3.
Alan Berg has 10-plus years of experience at Las Vegas sports books and prior to moving to Las Vegas covered sports for the Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Follow him on Twitter: @vegasberserker Contact him at ABerg@GamingToday.com.