Cormier, Mighty Mouse retain UFC titles
April 18, 2017 3:07 AM
by Vegas Runner
Fight fans and bettors alike will be treated to multiple marquee match-ups over the next few weeks in both boxing and mixed martial arts.
Some of the most highly anticipated bouts are scheduled to take place as the weather starts to heat up, including Klitschko vs. Joshua, Chavez vs. Alvarez, and Kovalev vs. Ward in boxing. There are also multiple UFC events ahead on the docket, as several world titles are set to be on the line.
Last weekend Daniel Cormier successfully defended his 205-pound strap at UFC 210, and this past Saturday night Demetrious Johnson (26-2-1) did the same. The current UFC flyweight champion now has his tenth successful title defense with his victory against Wilson Reis (22-7).
Demetrious was listed as high as -850 by bookmakers, which reflects a win probability of nearly 90%. “Mighty Mouse” is at the very top of most “top pound for pound” lists and sportsbooks have not made it cheap for bettors to back the champion. Most casual bettors like the idea of putting up a little money to win a lot, rather than the other way around. This ultimately leads to the underdogs attracting the majority of betting action, which leads to bookmakers siding with the favorite.
Personally, I’ve never had an issue laying chalk. In fact, my only concern is the price compared to the probability. Simply put, a bettor who lays -1000 when the probability or “true odds” reflect the price should be -1600, is definitely getting the best of it. In fact, if the same bettor can find positions like that one continuously, then he/she is a mathematical certainty to turn a profit over time. Of course that’s also dependent on one’s ability to manage their bankroll efficiently.
A little further down on the same UFC on FOX 24 card was the Jacare Souza vs. Robert Whittaker fight, won impressively by Whittaker. This bout most certainly puts him in a closer position to challenge for the UFC middleweight title. The performance was a tour de force for Whittaker, a prospect-turned-contender over the past year or so who has quite evidently found a home at 185 pounds.
Whittaker has now won his last seven fights. He has been able to defend against 93% of opponents’ take-down attempts. For Souza, at age 37, the loss may mark the end of the line.