Looking to bet Canelo? Skip the huge chalk and bet on USFantasy

Looking to bet Canelo? Skip the huge chalk and bet on USFantasy

May 02, 2017 3:03 AM
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With the huge fight starting to pick up buzz in Vegas, USFantasy has released odds for the Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight at T-Mobile Arena Saturday.

First, let’s go over what is offered with opening odds/current odds:

Prop No. 2

Alvarez vs. Chavez Jr.

No. 1 Alvarez by Knockout Round 1 (Opening Odds 18-1; Current Odds 99-1); No. 2 Alvarez by KO RD 2 (18-1; 99-1); No. 3 Alvarez by KO RD 3 (20-1; 99-1); No. 4 Alvarez by KO RD 4 (20-1; 99-1);

No. 5 Alvarez by KO RD 5 (20-1; 48-1); No. 6 Alvarez by KO RD 6 (20-1; 60-1); No. 7 Alvarez by KO RD 7 (20-1; 60-1); No. 8 Alvarez by KO RD 8 (20-1; 99-1);

No. 9 Alvarez by KO RD 9 (20-1; 60-1); No. 10 Alvarez by KO RD 10 (20-1; 80-1); No. 11 Alvarez by KO RD 11 (20-1; 99-1); No. 12 Alvarez by KO RD 12 (20-1; 99-1);

No. 13 Alvarez by DECISION (5-2; 18-1); No. 14 Chavez by KO RD 1-3 (35-1; 11-1); No. 15 Chavez by KO RD 4-6 (35-1; 10-1); No. 16 Chavez by KO RD 7-9 (35-1; 6-1);

No. 17 Chavez by KO RD 10-12 (35-1; 5-2); No. 18 Chavez by DEC (8-1; 7-2); No. 19 DRAW (45-1; 5-1).

Currently $1,377 is in the pool already, which should lead to a great night of action by Saturday.

Canelo is the -500 to -700 favorite in the fight while Chavez is getting anywhere from +400 to +500 in the Vegas sportsbooks. See Page 3 for my betting fight breakdown, but this is USFantasy and we are here for the value.

I think Canelo wins this fight either in the late rounds or via unanimous decision. I wouldn’t lay the heavy price on Canelo in the book so USFantasy might offer us the best case if wagering on the favorite. First off the 18-1 on Canelo by decision is a fantastic price but one we will have to monitor as the pool grows. If you’re getting EVEN money or better on No. 13 it’s a solid wager.

Chavez’s value is currently low for how I expect the fight to go; 7-2 by decision is not a good price considering the 5-1 bet on him to just win the fight that is available in the book. I feel if you can get Chavez by decision 11-1 or higher then it’s a play.

The scenario in which Chavez wins: I like him winning via KO late in the fight but the value isn’t there in Rounds 10-12 nor Rounds 7-9. I would want 20-1 or higher to bother with a wager there.

So let’s get down to my favorite wager at press time. Like I said earlier, I don’t expect that Canelo by DEC price to stay there but make sure that’s the wager if you are getting anything close to 18-1. I think the total in this fight should be 9.5 with around a -140 price on the OVER. Therefore I would take a shot on Canelo and bet Rounds 9-12 Canelo by KO. The current lowest price is 60-1, which is a fantastic payout for large favorite.

Also available for betting is the undercard fight, Lucas Matthysse vs. Emmanuel Taylor. Prop No. 1 current lines: No. 1 Matthysse by KO 2-1; No. 2 Matthysse by DEC 6-5; No. 3 Taylor by KO 5-1; No. 4 Taylor by DEC 5-1 and No. 5 DRAW 15-1.