Mayweather a massive lock to beat McGregor
June 06, 2017 3:06 AM
by Vegas Runner
Though I have stayed away from the topic in my column to date, rest assured I’ve been posed the question on every weekly radio segment I do. By now I’m sure you already know we’re talking Mayweather vs. McGregor.
Since Floyd is undoubtedly the “A” side and ultimately the one who gets to decide whether or not this fight ever takes place, I’ll go ahead and list his name first on the marquee. Multiple reports have confirmed Conor has applied for his boxing license in the state of Nevada, and his side has already signed “the” contract.
He’s currently under contract with the UFC, but the promotion’s president Dana White has given his fighter the green light for negotiations to proceed. For this bout to come to fruition it’ll be Mayweather Jr. and his team, including manager Al Haymon who will decide it. For that to happen, McGregor would surely need to concede to every Mayweather demand, just like his past opponents had to. Besides wanting a guaranteed $100 million, I’m convinced Floyd will put as many safeguards in place as possible to protect his perfect ledger.
I believe there is a 60/40 chance the fight will eventually materialize. For Mayweather it’s also the least risky. Couple that with the obvious interest from fans of boxing and mixed martial arts, even from non-fight fans, and it’s not as far-fetched as first appeared.
Within minutes of Mayweather vs. McGregor being mentioned, potential betting odds were being tossed around, sportsbooks were anxious to get their names mentioned among all the stories being written. This led to many different opening betting lines.
The Westgate Superbook had listed Mayweather as a -2500 favorite, with the take-back on McGregor at +1100. Converting those money-lines into win probability reflects 96% for Mayweather and 8% for McGregor.
Unlike most betting markets where the majority of recreational bettors are biased toward “favorites,” when it comes to most mega-fights those same casual bettors tilt toward the “underdog.” The reason for this is simple, the idea of having to put up a little money in order to win a lot, is much more appealing than needing to put up a lot to win a little.
I am extremely confident the price will drop as not too many casual bettors will be in a hurry to place a $2,500 wager, to win $100. Instead, I expect the prospect of betting $100 to win $1,100 will be alluring. Also I am very confident that even at -2500, the value’s on Floyd.
In the world I live in, where I have to lay 11 to win 10 every single day, there are few “sure things,” and Mayweather beating McGregor is as close to that as I’ve seen in a very long time. Granted, there are no “locks” in sports and the improbable does occur like it does anywhere else in life. But as one who bets for profit and not for entertainment, my goal is to find positions that offer me the best of it and get my money down.
And in this particular matchup, Mayweather Jr. offers his backers the best of it.
One of boxing’s most accomplished trainers, Freddie Roach, stated after McGregor trained at his Wild Card Gym that it would take him at least three years of hard core training just to prepare him to not get embarrassed. Roach also said a couple of his fighters got the best of McGregor in sparring, and keep in mind they were not world champions let alone one of the greatest boxers of all time.
I urge anyone who may be tempted by the underdog to remember what happened to James Toney, the former three-time, three-division world champion boxer, when he entered the Octagon against Randy Couture. Like I said, they are different sports.
Vegas-Runner is a professional sports bettor & handicapper in Las Vegas. He’s been featured in NY Times Magazine, ESPN, Fox Sports, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and more. VR was also in CNBC’s Crime Inc. on Sports Betting and in the documentary The Best of It. You can follow VR on Twitter @Greek_Gambler. Email: VegasRunner@GamingToday.com