Examples of how misguided sports betting in other states might go
February 13, 2018 3:00 AM
by Scott Schettler
Continuing with last week’s theme where I discussed how impossible it will be to cut the sports betting pot with multiple leagues and how uncomprehending politicians will interfere, especially those who consider themselves sports experts.
Now let’s consider the physical impossibilities of trying to operate a legal sportsbook outside Nevada. I’m going to examine the most extreme situation out there. New York City at post time when the Giants and Jets line up. Let’s consider the Las Vegas corporate bookmaking operations are given the OK to expand into the city, state or whatever.
Las Vegas can manage because it’s an island in the middle of nowhere. That makes it easy to monitor both the regulatory and bookmaking sides of the business. NYC is home to hundreds of thousands of sports bettors. They bet with “their man,” a local bookmaker who has a clientele he’s built up. This guy may book the bets himself, lay off some of his action as an agent for a bigger office or an offshore book.
Add layoff from around the rest of the country and the Las Vegas betting hubs couldn’t handle this kind of action in their current configurations.
Using a conservative estimate let’s say there are a thousand local BMs in NYC each with 50 to 100 clients on up to many hundreds in bigger offices. Again, using conservative estimates, we might have 100,000 players, big and small, in NYC. The Giants vs. the Jets would easily attract $50 million and most would be on game day.
An educated guess tells me over half of NYC players will stay with their current bookie. That would leave 30,000 to 40,000 players trying to get down in sportsbooks on Giants vs. Jets.
A big Las Vegas corporate chain of mega sportsbooks could have 200 writers on an NFL Sunday to accommodate a whole NFL schedule of games. In our Giants vs. Jets made up scenario, NYC sportsbooks would need approximately 1,500 writers for the same day action. That’s 1,500 honest citizens culled from the wiseguys of NYC. It’s a slam dunk the do gooders will insist half of them are from some victim class.
See where all this speculation is going? No solid research is behind these figures. I’m just going on well earned experience. It’s all just to get a point across.
We haven’t even gotten into limits and on what amount will they move a line or on air. Wait till the first multi-million loss and watch the finger pointing and heads roll. “I knew that number was too low,” from genius bureaucrats and politicians will fill the government halls.
After a couple weeks of this they will go to -120, then -130, etc. They’ll end up with parlay cards or fantasy sports or some form of pari-mutuel sports betting.
Pessimist or realist? Take your choice. Take care.