Top 5 MLB, NBA and NHL ‘Over-Valued’ ‘Under-Valued’ Teams

May 4, 2011 6:44 AM

(EDITOR’S NOTE: GamingToday’s newest contributor Vegas Runner has a feature on his website (http://pregame.com) called Value Top 10 that has picked up a ton on views. Here is his latest installment.)

Top 5 MLB, NBA and NHL "Over-Valued" Teams in the betting market:

1) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER...Continue to make the list. Oddsmakers place a premium on backing them because books claim they receive heavy volume every game and are tied into majority of exotics...Also playing an "under-valued" team at the moment which attracts an even bigger premium.

2) BOSTON RED SOX...Bettors continue to expect them to play up to the preseason hype...A $100 bettor is still down almost a dime for the season backing them on the ML...Memo to fans, Sox may not even compete for the Wild Card.

3) BOSTON CELTICS...Synonymous with playoff basketball. After disposing of the Knicks easily, it seems like fans want to now see them take down the big ‘"3" in Miami...The tide has changed from when the postseason tipped off.

4) CHICAGO CUBS...Always had a huge fan base not shy when it comes to betting. Because of that, it’s rare to find much value backing them and with a run-differential ratio of -35. Seem destined to repeat the past. As bad at home as on the road.

5) DETROIT RED WINGS..."Hockey Town" always gets money from the betting public and thus usually overvalued. Nothing’s changed in 2011. Were installed as the favorite to advance to the Conference Finals despite not having home-ice advantage.

 

Top 5 MLB, NBA and NHL "Under-Valued" Teams in the betting market:

1) ATLANTA HAWKS...Not many fans expect them to give the Bulls trouble...Considered lucky to get past a higher seeded Orlando was reflected in the Game 1 line vs Chicago...Very dangerous group of veterans playing their best ball of the season.

2) SAN JOSE SHARKS...An after-thought in the Western Conference since the Canucks are such heavy favorites to get to the Finals and hoist the Cup...Oddsmakers made them a dog in the 2nd round even with home-ice. They’ve taken a 2-0 lead and will be in the Conference Finals liley more rested than their opponent.

3) ATLANTA BRAVES...Yes, I still believe they are one of the most talented teams with a huge upside...In same division as Phils and the soaring Marlins. Currently 4½ games back...Run differential ratio is +24 – third best in NL. I see a winning streak on the horizon and the market being slow to adjust.

4) DALLAS MAVERICKS...The one team with a higher seed in Round 1 who most experts saw being upset. Dallas proved them wrong and in a year when not expected to do much and have very little pressure on them. Have the pieces to be a very dangerous opponent. Regardless of how far they go, the market will show them no respect.

5) CLEVELAND INDIANS...Earned $100 bettor the most profit to date this season...Despite being first team to 20 wins, betting market can’t shake the "Tribe" image of being in the basement with KC and waiting for a collapse. It’s obvious someone forgot to inform them. They just keep making money.