Top 5 Sports Wagers ‘Over-Valued’ ‘Under-Valued’ in the betting market

Jul 6, 2011 7:00 AM

Interleague action took center stage the past few weeks and even though fans seem to enjoy it, their fondness doesn’t carry over to the betting window.

In fact, betting volume was low when compared to the regular schedule where teams play within their division.

As far as the betting market is concerned, "perception" is tougher to gauge on matchups that don’t include marquee teams. But now that things get back to normal and MLB has a monopoly on the betting market until football gets here, let’s determine which teams are over and undervalued as we approach the All-Star break.

Top "5" Over-Valued Baseball Wagers

1. TEXAS RANGERS: They may be first place in the AL West and show a positive run differential, but oddsmakers make it difficult to turn a profit backing them. Though only 20-23 on the road, the betting market had them favored in their last seven away games.

2. CINCINNATI REDS: Only three games out of first in the NL Central, but a $100 bettor is down over a nickel betting them. Reds have scored the most runs in the NL and public bettors prefer offense so they’ll continue to attract support. Thus, oddsmakers will continue to over-price them.

3. DETROIT TIGERS: Only 1½ games out of first in the AL Central, but haven’t turned a profit for supporters overall. Tigers have a negative run differential and are 18-22 on the road. Detroit has won 59 percent of its home games but oddsmakers continue to add a premium since they get public money almost every night.

4. COLORADO ROCKIES: Only the Astros have cost their supporters more than the Rockies as a $100 bettor – down over $1,500 this season. Only a .500 team at home, but oddsmakers sent them out as the favorite in 14 of their last 16 games at Coors. If bettors continue to back them at home, oddsmakers will continue to over-price.

5. LA DODGERS: Maybe it’s because they’re a big market team that they have a huge fan base. Regardless, they’re 11 games out of first in the NL West but continue to attract public money. With a -36 run differential and a losing record both home and away, they should only be looked at when offered as dogs.

Top "5" Under-Valued Baseball Wagers

1. CLEVELAND INDIANS: They win 64 percent of home games and first place in the AL Central, but the perception seems to reflect a lack of confidence by bettors. The market has made them the dog at home against the Yanks in back-to-back games, even though win percentage at home converts to a money-line of -178. As long as bettors continue to stay away, will continue to produce profit for backers at a big discount.

2. PITTSBURGH PIRATES: The most profitable team in baseball on the money-line at only four games above .500. I expect them to continue to play with motivation. Since bettors are conditioned to fade them yearly, the market will continue to under value. And it may last awhile.

3. WASHINGTON NATIONALS: Along with the Pirates, they’ll continue to remain under-valued and offered at a discount. Only the Phils have produced more profit in the NL East even though the Nats are 11 games behind. They will continue to produce profit as long as they’re able to hover around .500.

4. NY METS: They’re 10½ out of first in the NL East, but have a winning record overall and on the road. Oddsmakers continue to offer them up at a discount. A $100 bettor is up over a nickel but since they haven’t produced a profit for backers since 2006, not many are in a rush to back them.

5. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: Hot and cold throughout the season and only two games out of first in the NL West. A $100 bettor is up almost a dime backing them thanks to a winning record at home and away. A positive run differential and an offense that keeps them in games but don’t get much support at betting window.

Market Meter: (70% Wiseguy, 30% Public)

The Fourth of July weekend just came to a close and books expect volume to be low. The majority of recreational money comes in the form of parlays. Betting syndicates and professional bettors work year round. In the week ahead, I expect the majority of money wagered to come from them.

By-Line : Vegas-Runner is a Professional Sports Bettor in Las Vegas. Featured on CNBC and ESPN. Follow VR on Twitter (@Vegasrunner) and at Pregame.com.