When betting baseball where do you find the most value? I am always intrigued by countless conversations I have with sports bettors at the sports books talking about value in betting baseball.
Some offer up the opinion that betting small favorites is the way to go; even if you lose, you don’t get hurt too badly. After hearing this I was thinking, “Talk about a defeatist attitude.”
Others have said betting totals is the way to go while others still point to “only betting dogs.” I subscribe to the latter more than any other. I strongly feel if you bet dogs only in baseball you will do very well for yourself long term.
Of course, in the short term anything is possible but by betting dogs at the absolute best prices, you should make a real nice profit. The key is to shop and make sure you are getting five to 15 cents the best of it as compared to most sports books.
It only takes one sports book to post a sloppy number that you can bet into. Imagine the kind of money you would be up simply by betting a team this year that no one thought stood even a remote chance of being taken seriously, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Not only do the Pirates have the best record in baseball but they have been the biggest money maker for sports bettors. Remember, a little advantage can go a long way. We talked last week about how extremely important it is to see something before it happens. The Pirates are a perfect example. I would like to say I saw this coming, I did not.
What are some of the variables you look for in handicapping baseball? Most of us are familiar with the wind blowing in or out, starting lineups (knowing which player the manager decides to give the day off). What about current form, winning and losing streaks (ride the streak, win or lose, because you can only lose one time), home and away, travel schedule, pitching match ups, etc.
Something I always look at, especially when betting totals, has to do with the home plate umpire. This information is readily available to the smart sports bettor. Specific home plate umpires have very predictable trends much like a hot hitter vs. one pitcher more than any other. When handicapping baseball it is a matter of utilizing all of these tools and filtering out what is important and what isn’t.
I mentioned the Pirates have been the biggest cash cow for sports bettors this season. Let’s take a look now at totals. Four teams have been very good OVER bets – the Angels, Dodgers, Tigers and Brewers. On the other side of the coin, Texas is by far the best UNDER bet.
The Rangers have gone UNDER 51 out of 84 games. Wow, what an opportunity! Current form as of Monday shows the Phillies have gone OVER in 5 straight games while the Nationals have cashed 4 straight to the OVER.
Before you bet it make sure you get it. I am talking about finding real value and being very selective at all times. Most unsuccessful sports bettors know just enough to get themselves into trouble.
You are better than most by reading this article. The more you know, the more your bankroll grows. What are you waiting for? See the cashier.
Check out Scott’s sports betting show The Odds Couple on AM 1400 radio daily when it resumes in August. It is broadcast LIVE and worldwide on Vegas Video Network. For free daily plays, check out my site: www.PritchardsPicks.com. Contact him at [email protected].