Laying -1.5 on the run line so far a risk worth taking
July 11, 2017 3:04 AM
by Ramon Scott
A popular tout service selection is to recommend laying the run line with elite teams.
Take a couple of losses following such a formula and naysayers and trolls will be quick to point to the perils of what seems to be such a square route to certain betting failure.
And make no mistake, laying a run-and-a-half or even taking the handicap can quickly beat up your bankroll thanks to the extended takeout.
But a few teams this season have smashed their way to profits as a -1.5 favorite and it’s pretty much exactly whom you would expect.
World Series favorites Houston and Los Angeles are the best run line teams so far this season.
In fact, the Astros are up over 20 units this season, having been favored in all but nine of their 89 games to date.
Interestingly, despite the Astros’ tremendous record overall, bookmakers have reported only a modest increase in actual money bet on Houston this season
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are the team bettors have flocked to, according to the linemakers.
And laying the handicap with the Blue Crew has been of particular interest to the public.
Los Angeles has brought home a profit of nearly 15 units to run line backers this season. L.A. has been an underdog only six times this season.
Most books currently have both the Dodgers and Astros at around 4-to-1 to win the World Series.
The Texas Rangers may be the surprise of the limited list of successful run line teams.
The Rangers enter the break two games under .500, but are also approaching the plus-15 unit mark, albeit in a bit different fashion.
Texas has the fourth overall best run line record at 49-36, but has been a pick’em or underdogs in 60 of those games, which has made them a run-line ‘dog most of the time, often laying substantial juice.
The Yankees and the Brewers are also up around 10 units for their run line bettors this season, while the Diamondbacks (+7.5 units) and Red Sox (+5 units) are the only other teams showing a reasonable run line profit.
A quick glance would reveal that rarely should any team other than the league’s better clubs be considered for a wager on the run line. The key here, as quite often in higher variance wagering, is taking plus-money with those run line favorites.
With most teams uncommitted to the reset of their rotation out of the break, we have no daily previews this week. Enjoy your annual sports betting vacation.