35 Degrees chilling to my wallet
April 17, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
The crazy March weather has continued into mid-April, wreaking havoc over Midwest and East Coast baseball games. There were six games that were postponed due to inclement weather on Sunday alone.
Baseball is not supposed to be played in 35 degree weather. For computer models or algorithm-based betting programs that do not take into account the weather, problems have arisen for handicappers like myself. Usually, betting MLB totals is my forte. However, I am down over ten units during my first two weeks of selections.
A rare mistake I have made is not putting the human element into the equation. Luckily enough, I possibly have the best bankroll management skills in the business and have not (nor will I ever) gotten out of line with any careless bets. I will still continue to wager 1 to 1.5% of allotted gaming bankroll per play. That dollar amount will be lower than it was two weeks ago due to losing a portion of the starting bankroll.
I fully understand this is hard to do for most who are down money. However, this is the only way to be successful long-term in this business. You need to bet less when you are losing and wager more when winning. I look forward to the weeks ahead, for I know what I have done in the past is a blueprint for what lies ahead.
I was away at several PGA tour events during these past few weeks and ran in to a bunch of guys I knew. One asked, “You win about 70% of your plays right?”
I laugh when people say this kind of thing to me, which really is quite often. Nobody realizes how hard it is to win 57-58% of the time long term, never mind a foolish number like 70%. However, as long as touts claim outlandish percentages such as those, I guess the public will be fooled into believing them.
Approximately 20 years ago I used to be a weekly guest on Larry Grossman’s “You Can Bet On It” radio show here in Vegas. It was one of the first shows on air that was purely sports betting driven. Even Larry got caught up in a Florida con-man’s claim that he would hit 70%. Larry was a great marketing guy and made millions of dollars from a gullible public. However, here at the end of the rainbow, his guy sits in a jail cell, convicted of stealing millions of dollars.
The lesson here is do not be a sucker and go for these visions of grandeur type of guys who flaunt beautiful cars and girls in their ads. The only money they will make from gambling is the money you send them, trust me!