Red Sox, Yankees paying off for bettors
June 05, 2018 3:04 AM
by Ramon Scott
Thanks to favorites like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, public bettors have had their share of baseball wagering success this season, which isn’t always the case.
Despite laying plenty of lumber in nearly every single game, both of the American League East stalwarts were hovering around the 10-plus unit mark as the teams were at least 20 games over .500 as the chalk. But there has been no bigger surprise in the favorite role than the highly-profitable Milwaukee Brewers.
Cast as underdogs in half of the games to date coming into the week, Milwaukee has posted a 21-6 record as a favorite entering the week, good for a +13.25 units. Combined with their +2.5 or so units as a ‘dog and the Brewers have been tops in baseball for bettors.
The Brewers don’t do much special but it has been the work of the relief corps that has helped them rise to a 14-to-1 choice to win the World Series, currently behind National League Central second-place pursuer Chicago Cubs (10-1), and well ahead of the other division contender, St. Louis (25-1).
The majors’ other latest fast-rising surprise team, the Seattle Mariners, have produced an 18-8 record as a favorite, good for about 3.25 units of profit. The M’s, however, are more impressive as an underdog, up six units entering the week when getting the money with just a 15-13 record in the role.
The Detroit Tigers might be the biggest money sleeper currently, producing a 5-1 record as a rare favorite, but also are a +8.25 units as a ‘dog. The Tigers’ downfall has been in closely-rated games where they are just 1-4 in pick’em encounters.
Another underdog of note has been the Colorado Rockies, which were up nearly 14 units entering the week when getting plus-money, going 16-9 as a ‘dog.
BREWERS (EV, 10) at INDIANS (Wed., 10:10): Division leaders conclude a three-game set but the big difference, besides the Crew’s better record, comes in the comparison of bullpens. Milwaukee has the majors’ second-best ‘pen while the Tribe is last. Chase Anderson, of the Brewers, and Carlos Carrasco, of the Indians, have struggled of late. MIL, 6-4
DIAMONDBACKS (-102, 8.5o20) at GIANTS (Wed., 12:45): Regression for Clay Buchholz seems inevitable but congratulations to the D’backs for giving him a chance off another injury, as he’s returned with three nice starts. Chris Stratton hasn’t been overwhelming for sure, but he’s among the best with over 8.25 units of profit off great effort vs. Philly last Friday. ARI, 6-4
ROCKIES (-135, 10o20) at REDS (Wed., 4:10): Doesn’t matter which hitter-happy park you put the Rockies’ Jon Gray and the Reds’ Sal Romano in. After a good three-game stretch, Gray has allowed 19 runs in his last 18-1/3 innings but won this matchup in Colorado on May 25. To top that, Romano has allowed 22 runs in his last 15-1/3 innings pitched. COL, 6-5
ROYALS (+200, 8.5) at LA ANGELS (Wed., 7:07): Shohei Ohtani-time in Anaheim as the multi-purpose star comes in with a 4-1 record, seemingly getting stronger with each start. The Royals’ Ian Kennedy is down nearly five units and has a 7.01 ERA on the road. The Angels’ bullpen is over a run-and-a-half better in ERA. LAA, 6-3
PHILLIES (-101) at CUBS (Thu., 11:20): Phillies on last game of 10-day swing after two West Coast stops as Nick Pivetta lasted just four innings at the Giants last Friday, with his road ERA increasing to over six. The Cubs’ Tyler Chatwood is back in the rotation and helped earn the money as a discounted road favorite at the Mets last Friday. CUB, 5-4
ORIOLES (+102, 9) at BLUE JAYS (Thu., 4:07): Jaime Garcia, of the Jays, hasn’t won in seven starts and rates near the bottom of the pitching ranks, though he’s been much sharper at home (3.43 ERA). The Orioles’ David Hess has had a pair of high-quality starts, including matching Max Scherzer for most of six-plus innings in a loss at Camden Yards last week. TOR, 5-4
MARINERS (-120, 8) at RAYS (Fri., 4:10): Rays may lose Chris Archer here with a new injury (groin), which would leave them scrambling again in a possible bullpen game after several injuries to young potential replacements, including possible recall Yonny Chirinos. The M’s Marco Gonzalez is on quite a four-game roll after beating Archer on Saturday. SEA, 4-3
BRAVES (+130, 8o15) at DODGERS (Fri., 7:10): Dodgers’ Walker Buehler had an off-day at Colorado on Saturday, but now should get back to form at home against Brandon McCarthy. Buehler has a 1.44 home ERA in four starts, while McCarthy has a 4.83 ERA overall after striking out seven in six innings on Saturday, but Nats got the money in 5-3 win in 14. LAD, 5-3
ASTROS (-200, 8o20) at RANGERS (Sat., 4:15): Astros’ Charlie Morton is coming off his worst outing of the season in the Sunday night showdown with Boston, giving up some long homers in taking his first loss. After a surprising start to the season, the Rangers’ Mike Minor is consistently allowing between 3 and 6 runs per start with a home ERA of 4.11. HOU, 6-3
PADRES (-105, 8.5) at MIA MARLINS (Sun., 10:10): Padres’ Clayton Richard took early steam and became a small overnight favorite at home against Julio Teheran and the Braves last Monday and has a 6.26 ERA on the road. The Marlins’ Jose Urena took his 0-7 record and -12 units into Tuesday road game at Carlos Martinez and the Cards. SD, 5-4
YANKS (-250, 8.5u15) at METS (Sun., 5:05): Luis Severino, of the Yankees, entered the week 10 units to the plus-side of the ledger and was a two-dollar favorite at Detroit on Monday. Short-stint starter Jason Vargas, of the Mets, had an 8.53 ERA entering the week and was scheduled to pitch at home on Tuesday against Baltimore. NYY, 6-2