Backing Brewers over Indians
June 05, 2018 3:00 AM
by Ian Cameron
Thiis week, I will again take a look ahead at a few of the matchups taking place on the diamond that will offer up some solid wagering opportunities in MLB action later on this week.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: Carlos Carrasco has hit a recent downward slide for the Cleveland Indians as he is currently tabbed the projected starter for this Interleague matchup on Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Carrasco has been hit hard of late, allowing 11 runs on 14 hits in his last two starts spanning 9.1 innings against Houston and Minnesota.
On the other side of the coin, Chase Anderson will get the start for Milwaukee and he is one of those rare cases where his best work this season has been on the road as opposed to at his home ballpark. Anderson enters this start with a rock solid 2.67 ERA in five road starts this season and the Brew Crew have a winning record in those games.
Cleveland is an overvalued commodity right now as some of their starters have recently underachieved, including Carrasco, their lineup is sometimes inconsistent and their once dominant bullpen is a shell of its former self as the Tribe have endured significant woes trying to close out games in the latter stages. I think Milwaukee may be a good value play here on the road to take care of business and pick up the victory in this game.
Colorado at Cincinnati: Jon Gray and Sal Romano are slated to toe the rubber for their respective teams in this matchup. Gray was expected to be the ace of this Colorado Rockies rotation but he has had a very “rocky” journey of late. A few starts ago, Gray had a noticeable decline in velocity and since that time he hasn’t been the same pitcher and has been very hittable. He has surrendered 19 runs on 31 hits over a span of 18.1 innings during his last four starts. Those four games all had nine or more total runs scored in the game.
On the other side is Romano who is also a struggling arm right now for the Cincinnati Reds. Romano has given up 22 runs over his last 17.2 innings of work. Both of these lineups recently played each of these two starters when they played at Coors Field just a few weeks ago and neither lineup was fooled by the opposing starter. I expect this game to be a game worth wagering Over the total in a battle between two starters that are struggling with their confidence and struggling to get outs at this point of the season.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota: It may simply be a matter of time before the clock runs out on current Chicago White Sox manager Rick Renteria as his team endures a truly dismal season, entering this week’s action with a horrible 18-38 record. Things won’t get easier for them in this Thursday matchup against division rival Minnesota Twins who just happen to be sending one of their prized young pitching prospects of the future to the mound in Jose Berrios.
Berrios has been stupendous of late and is in terrific current form for the Twinkies. He has allowed only 9 runs in his last 22.2 innings of work over four starts against pretty good competition, facing St. Louis, Detroit, Seattle and Cleveland during that span. Minnesota has won three of his last four starts and should be in prime position to win again here with him on the mound against a White Sox squad that is ranked 26th in MLB in runs scored.
On the flip side, James Shields is expected to start for Chicago and he’s actually been pitching somewhat decently of late. However, his ERA in day games this season is nearly a run higher than it is at night.
The White Sox have a money burning 2-7 record in Shields’ previous nine daytime starts this season. You may have to lay -1.5 runs with Minnesota in this game as opposed to taking them on the ML because I expect them to be substantial home chalk on the ML.
I think this is a spot where doing so could be a prudent betting proposition.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia: The Milwaukee Brewers find their way on to my prime betting spots list for a second time in MLB this week but this time I’ll be looking at the total as opposed to a side. Vince Velasquez certainly appears to be turning a corner and pitching his best baseball of the season right now for the Philadelphia Phillies. He owns a sparkling 2.20 ERA in his last three starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in four consecutive trips to the mound. He is expected to be opposed by Jhoulys Chacin for the Milwaukee Brewers in this game.
Chacin will not blow opposing hitters away with his stuff but it appears he has learned how to pitch, how to mix things up, change speeds and keep hitters off balance. Chacin has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The Phillies lineup has struggled in recent games as Philly was held to a single run in a dismal three-game weekend series sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants.
This could be a good Under bet in this game between two lineups that are not immune to cold streaks and going up against two pitchers that are certainly in fine form right now. I expect a lower scoring affair in this one.