Revenge a great system to use when betting MLB
March 20, 2019 3:07 AM
by W.G. Ramirez
Last week, we talked about Major League Baseball pitchers making their debut on the hill. This week we’re talking about hurlers seeking revenge.
Many times throughout the season you’ll find teams facing one another at one ballpark over the weekend, and the same two at the other ballpark the next weekend. Outside of Interleague play, teams face one another in multiple series throughout the season.
For this week’s system, I’m zeroing in on those series that fall within one week of one another, and pitchers who do the same.
As an example, the New York Yankees might play in Boston against their arch-rival Red Sox and will hand the ball to Luis Severino. The Yankees’ right-hander might be facing Boston lefty Chris Sale at Fenway Park, and let’s just say Severino and the Yankees prevail. Now, one week later, the Red Sox are on 161st Street for a date in the Bronx, and we have another three-game series. And in one of those games, it’s Severino and Sale dueling again.
I’m going to play the Red Sox and will be sure to list both Sale and Severino on my ticket. The thought process is simple: revenge.
While the loss is fresh in a pitcher’s mind, he’ll be looking to avenge the setback. And let’s be clear with this theory, as you want to be sure the pitcher from the losing team in the first meeting was tagged with the loss in that game. It stings more.
A no-decision doesn’t bother a pitcher as much as a loss to his record. If a reliever takes the L, a starter may quietly believe he deserved it, and won’t even be fazed. But knowing he is credited with the loss, that’s something that lingers. Especially knowing the more losses on that pitcher’s record, the harder it is for his agent to renegotiate his contract.
Some theorists will say it’s a system that works if the pitcher pitched well in the first meeting. I am one to believe either way that losing pitcher will be looking for redemption.
Think about it, if the losing starter from the initial meeting lost a close one, he’ll want it back. If the lineup chased him early because he was tattered for more runs than he is used to, he’ll want it back.
I don’t have numbers for this particular system, like I did last week, as it would be too difficult to determine the number of days between meetings, whether it is five days or seven days. It could also be eight days. Who is to tell us that two starters that toed the slab on a Friday aren’t meeting again on the following Sunday?
As for the winning pitcher of the first game, the losing lineup will also be looking for revenge and the guy who add a notch to the team’s loss column.
I’ve also kept an eye, at times, if the rematch is within two, three or four weeks. I admit it, I like to stretch systems as far as I can. With this one, I won’t go further than a series-rematch that is more than 30 days. I just look at it like the less time between the meetings, the probability for a win is greater.
Although my MLB pitching debut system is one of my favorites, this one is stronger because of the two ingredients we’re depending on: the starting pitchers. They control the pace of how a game is played, they dictate the lines most times and I believe they’re at the very least, an 80 percent contributing factor to the outcome of a baseball game.
Take advantage of this system and remember to be sure the pitcher you’re wagering on actually took the loss in the first meeting.
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