Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Drew Smyly (0-3, 6.50 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.80 ERA)
Despite pitching past the fifth inning only once through four starts since first arriving in the majors at the end of April, the under has been a flawless 3-0-1 (or 4-0 depending on time of bet in last game) in Canning’s outings.
Obviously, that’s a very small sample size but the 2017 second-round draft pick is quickly making a name for himself in a way that could continue to churn out under-bet victories at a nice pace.
Canning is coming off by far his prettiest gem at this level, when he blanked the Royals across seven sharp three-hit innings in which he also walked only one and struck out five.
The right-hander appears to be trending up and should particularly benefit on this night being able to work from home at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium, which can help neutralize the Rangers’ homer-happy lineup.
The key, however, may be Smyly, who actually offers solid value as a +150 underdog in addition to potentially being really useful for this under wager.
While the 29-year-old southpaw has endured a rocky comeback campaign in his first year with Texas, there have still been some shades of the old, pre-injury Smyly that could bring about more consistency.
The most glaring thing regarding Smyly, for me at least, is that he’s managed to retain his old strikeout form, registering 10.08 K/BB, a number reminiscent of his career-best (10.4) from a few years ago.
While the Angels regularly rely on a few of the most dangerous hitters in the league, this is still a pretty good opportunity for Smyly to get on track. The Halos rank dead-last in team batting average against left-handed pitching (.210), continuing a trend from a year ago when they were also tied for last in baseball with a .224 mark.
Get this one in as soon as you can, with the line already having fallen in many places. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)
Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Tigers Under 9 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 29-24-3, +2.3 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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