MLB Over/Under Bet: Exploring an uncanny streak from Canning

May 24, 2019 8:53 AM

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 7:07 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Drew Smyly (0-3, 6.50 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.80 ERA)

Despite pitching past the fifth inning only once through four starts since first arriving in the majors at the end of April, the under has been a flawless 3-0-1 (or 4-0 depending on time of bet in last game) in Canning’s outings.

Obviously, that’s a very small sample size but the 2017 second-round draft pick is quickly making a name for himself in a way that could continue to churn out under-bet victories at a nice pace.

Canning is coming off by far his prettiest gem at this level, when he blanked the Royals across seven sharp three-hit innings in which he also walked only one and struck out five.   

The right-hander appears to be trending up and should particularly benefit on this night being able to work from home at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium, which can help neutralize the Rangers’ homer-happy lineup.

The key, however, may be Smyly, who actually offers solid value as a +150 underdog in addition to potentially being really useful for this under wager. 

While the 29-year-old southpaw has endured a rocky comeback campaign in his first year with Texas, there have still been some shades of the old, pre-injury Smyly that could bring about more consistency.

The most glaring thing regarding Smyly, for me at least, is that he’s managed to retain his old strikeout form, registering 10.08 K/BB, a number reminiscent of his career-best (10.4) from a few years ago.

While the Angels regularly rely on a few of the most dangerous hitters in the league, this is still a pretty good opportunity for Smyly to get on track. The Halos rank dead-last in team batting average against left-handed pitching (.210), continuing a trend from a year ago when they were also tied for last in baseball with a .224 mark.

Get this one in as soon as you can, with the line already having fallen in many places. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Tigers Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 29-24-3, +2.3 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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