MLB Over/Under Bet: Believing in Beede — and Alcantara

May 30, 2019 8:04 AM

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Tyler Beede (0-1, 13.50 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2-5, 4.50 ERA)

A series matching up the National League’s two lowest-scoring teams will wrap up in the early window today, after the first two meetings split in terms of the over/under result.

For the finale, the under looks like the bet to roll with. If you’ve been a reader of mine since last year, you very well know the affection I have for Alcantara, who I think is a future All-Star.

Although he’s been inconsistent in his second year as a Major League starter, the flashes of greatness have been there and this looks like a spot where the 23-year-old can showcase some of his better work.

Alcantara has drawn a favorable matchup in his preferred setting. The Giants are reeling right now, having lost seven in a row, and the offense has been the main culprit in that, plating only 2.71 runs per game during the losing streak. 

Overall, San Francisco has not topped four runs in any of its last 10 games and have exceeded that small benchmark only one time in their last 14.

Under bettors should also appreciate when and where this assignment is taking place for Alcantara. It’s at his pitcher-friendly home, Marlins Park, where he’s generally been better than on the road since starting with the team last season. 

Alcantara has also been notably better during the daytime, yielding more than two runs just once in his six career afternoon starts. So far in 2019, he’s churned out an ERA (1.67) and WHIP (0.85) during the day that easily bests his marks (6.97 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) at night.

What could be the most decisive factor in this bet, however, involves the other starting pitcher in this affair, Beede. The former first-round draft pick hasn’t yet materialized at the Major League level, as this will be just his fourth career start, but I fully believe in this Vanderbilt product to finally establish himself in the big leagues.

Though his numbers (in a small sample size) with the Giants may not show it, Beede has exhibited loads of potential, albeit in the minors. In seven starts this year at Triple-A Sacramento, Beede logged a desirable 2.34 ERA while registering an impressive 12.72 K/9 -- and remember, this is in the hitting-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The biggest issue Beede has had whenever he’s been called up is his command, issuing a whopping 10.05 BB/9 (hence why he owns a career 10.67 ERA). Fortunately, a date with the Marlins can help quench that. Not only is Miami averaging the fewest runs per game (3.17) in baseball, they’re also last in walks as well, drawing 2.55 per game.

I made sure to jump on this total as soon as it came out late this morning and I’ve noticed it’s started to drop in some places. Make sure you get this in as soon as you can. Play: UNDER 8 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Dodgers Under 7.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 31-27-4, +1 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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