MLB Over/Under Bet: Pineda tries to maintain interleague trend

Aug 1, 2019 9:04 AM

Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins
Over/Under: 8
First pitch: 9:10 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Michael Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) vs. Jordan Yamamoto (4-2, 3.64 ERA)

At this point, I think it can be concluded that I made the right call on Pineda as a top sleeper of mine entering 2019. The 30-year-old Dominican native has quietly played a notable role in Minnesota’s journey to the top of the American League Central division.

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He’ll certainly be in a spot to succeed once again today. It’s not just because the Marlins are last in the league with 3.61 runs scored per game, but perhaps more so simply because this is an interleague assignment for Pineda on the road.

In his career, the 30-year-old has made eight starts in National League parks, ultimately pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across those efforts, spanning 40.1 innings. He’s also amassed an impressive 48-8 K/BB ratio.

With a favorable matchup in front of him, Pineda seems more likely to continue his recent run of quality pitching. He’s consistently eating up innings, having logged at least five innings in 16 consecutive starts, and in all but one of his last 14 assignments, Pineda has yielded three earned runs or fewer.

Yamamoto, the Miami rookie right-hander, will be going up against Pineda, though it looks like he’s also going in the opposite direction. The former Milwaukee Brewer farmhand has allowed 11 runs in his last starts -- this after giving up just six runs in his first six starts combined.

So what version of Yamamoto will we get in this series finale? Well, he is facing a downgraded Twins lineup that’s missing some key regulars -- and their replacements (Ehire Adrianza, Jason Castro) are typically dead bats. Thus, I think he can turn things back around  at least a little bit, and with Pineda doing his thing, it adds up to a low-scoring affair. Play: UNDER 8 (-105)

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Royals Under 10 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 61-5-1-9, +4 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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