MLB Over/Under Bet: Will Chirinos maintain unique trend?

Aug 4, 2019 8:52 AM

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Caleb Smith (7-4, 3.43) vs. Yonny Chirinos (8-5, 3.70 ERA)

The two Florida teams wrap up their season series today, with the Rays vying for a full four-game sweep. That effort will come against Miami’s most consistent pitcher, however.

Smith continues to provide nothing but steady work. He’s impressively logged at least five innings in all but one of his 17 starts this season, yielding two runs or fewer in 12 of those. Only three times has he allowed more than three earned runs, and although one of those instances came his last time out, Smith also had nine K’s.

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That’s been a theme for the left-hander this season, as he’s one of only three pitchers in the National League recording more than 11 K/9. Against a strikeout-happy team like the Rays, Smith may excel in this assignment. Tampa Bay strikes out at an exorbitant rate opposite southpaws, punching out once every 3.36 at-bats. This was a tendency that plagued them last year also.

Chirinos gets the ball for the home side and he, too, can be counted on for consistency. In all but two of his 22 appearances (16 starts), the second-year right-hander has given up no more than three earned runs.

While his last outing was actually one of the rare bad ones — Chirinos was tagged for a career-worst seven runs— that’s actually something that can serve us well. In his still-young career, there have been 10 instances where Chirinos surrendered more than three runs (including unearned). For his following stint on the mound, the 25-year-old kept his opponent to three or fewer runs each time, so there is a trend he’s exhibited of bouncing back quickly.

Specifically, in those nine previous ensuing outings, Chirinos holds a terrific 2.30 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 54.2 total innings. With the Marlins scoring the second-fewest runs per game in the majors, it’s a good matchup for Chirinos to once again get back on track. Play: UNDER 8 (-110)

Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-Yankees, Game One, Under 9.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 62-53-9, +2.85 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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