MLB Over/Under Bet: Super-Nova on the horizon?

Aug 7, 2019 8:14 AM

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Ivan Nova (6-9, 5.10 ERA) vs. Tyler Alexander (0-2, 4.50 ERA)

Don’t look now but Nova is pitching his best ball of the year. For the first time since last season, the veteran right-hander has a streak of three consecutive starts in which he’s allowed no more than one earned run, meaning he’s entering this  outing in a nice groove.

A meeting with Detroit — the American League’s lowest-scoring team (3.65 runs per game) — can help extend his run of quality work, especially if the Tigers are trotting out a lineup chock full of backups, being an early game after a day-night doubleheader.

This recent three-start stretch for Nova also included his first complete game in two years. Even before that, Nova was settling in and showing some consistency after being mired with an ERA north of 6.00 for much of the campaign. Overall, he’s logged at least five innings in all but one of his last 14 assignments.

Alexander, the other probable in this series finale, is set to make his fourth career start. His last two were less effective than the first two, but one of those solid performances came at the expense of these White Sox, who could only muster two runs in five innings off the lefty.

Chicago doesn’t excel too well against left-handers, ranking tied for 17th in team OPS (.747) and homering only once every 33.41 at-bats with a lefty on the hill. As it is, Alexander has been tagged for three home runs in his 22 total innings of work.

The potential lack of the long ball could be of assistance for Alexander to come through for an over/under this high. As manager Ron Gardenhire put it, “What I like about him is that he hangs in there. He never gives up the big bomb inning. It’s one run here, one run there.”

Two guys capable of a steady showing today are worth tailing for an under here. Make sure you get your action right away, as it’s already gone down in some spots. Play: UNDER 9.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Cubs Under 9.5 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 62-56-9, -0.65 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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