Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Cole Hamels (7-6, 3.95 ERA) vs. Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA)
A Paddack home game with an over/under of 8 -- and opposite a quality starter? This isn’t typical at all. Even more surprising, there’s additional juice on the over.
Either way, it’s the linesmakers not correctly valuing a Paddack assignment at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, as well as there being a generally consistent hurler like Hamels serving as the adversary.
Despite his rookie status, Paddack has really been good no matter where he’s toed the rubber. But, like most Padres pitchers throughout recent history, he’s fared better in San Diego.
At Petco, in fact, opposing batters are hitting only .192 off the hard-throwing 23-year-old, as Paddack has notched a 0.88 WHIP in his 10 home starts. Additionally, he’s yielding the long ball considerably less in front of the home fans (1.13 HR/9) compared to on the road (1.82 HR/9).
Paddack had some down slopes in August, giving up more than three runs in three of his five starts during the month, but he’s back on the upswing and looking more like he was in the beginning of the season. In his last two outings, Paddack has surrendered a mere one run across 12.1 innings, even striking out eight batters in back-to-back starts for the first time in his young career.
That’s something Hamels has accomplished plenty in his decade-plus in the big leagues. He’s 13 years older than his counterpart this evening, and while he hasn’t been as consistently effective, Hamels has enjoyed a mostly solid year.
More so, this involves pinpointing the 2008 World Series MVP in a spot he can succeed in. Not only do the Padres score the second-fewest runs per game at home (4) in the National League, it’s also at a park where Hamels has excelled in. The veteran southpaw is 5-1 with a stingy 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP for his career in nine starts at San Diego.
Overall, he’s faced the friars 18 times and gone 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across 121 innings. Play: UNDER 8 (-105)
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Mariners Under 9 (WIN)
2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 79-72-10, -2.25 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit