NBA favorites sitting at -4 or less is basically a pick'em
November 07, 2017 3:12 AM
by Alan Berg
Let’s shift gears a little bit. The NBA has been decent for me thus far so take a couple shots, hoping to cash at the window.
One of the main things that has been working is not dwelling on past results and focusing more on the likelihood of if these teams have their best games what would it do to the other in relation to the spread.
For example, let’s say a team has a lot of size, a more traditional pre-Warriors 3-point explosion offense system, and sits as a double digit favorite.
Now on this particular night that team is matched up with an inconsistent team that can shoot the lights out but are green and rely too much on athleticism. If they play their best what would happen?
Likely the team with more size would win, but would they actually cover against a 3-point shooting team? Say they are up 17 with 2:00 to play – likely that gap can be closed down to 12 quickly and now there is real danger with that backdoor cover.
Just keep in mind the matchups when deciding the big spreads is all I am saying. Anything at -4 or less regardless of road or home favorite is a pick’em type game. Use your angles wisely.
Nets at Nuggets (-11, 233): Brooklyn is on a back-to-back heading to the Mile High City. After running with Phoenix I expect their gas tank to run out in Denver. Go for two plays here. NUGGETS, UNDER
Bulls at Raptors (-11.5, 199.5): While Toronto will be a playoff team and the Bulls are in rebuild mode, the way the Raptors have been playing right now they don’t deserve to be a double-digit favorite in this spot. BULLS
Hornets (-1.5, 209.5) at Knicks: Kristaps Porzingis has exploded since Carmelo Anthony was finally traded away to the Thunder. The Latvian 7-foot-3 inch star is averaging 30.2 points per game, 7.8 rebounds and making 50% of his shots. NY deserves more respect at the Garden, 4-2 at home this season. KNICKS
Pelicans at Pacers (-1.5, 218.5): Indiana has been a surprise as the assets the Thunder traded to acquire Paul George from Indiana have been playing at a high level. Victor Oladipo has been scoring at will at 23.8 points, while Domantas Sabonis sits at 13.5 ppg, 10.3 rebounds per game and a sparkling 62.8 shooting percentage. With that said, the Pelicans have the Twin Towers (Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins). The Big Easy size advantage gets it done. PELICANS
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 22-22-1, 1 pending