NBA seeds still a mess as we head to the final two weeks
April 03, 2018 3:00 AM
by Andy Iskoe
VIP Bettin' on B-Ball | The final two weeks of the regular season are at hand and although most of the Playoff teams are known there are still seedings to be determined as the final games are played with teams having just 4, 5 or 6 games remaining.
A tip of the cap to the NBA, which for the past several seasons has taken the Monday night of the NCAA Championship Game off so as to allow the Association to enjoy with the rest of the country the culmination of the college basketball season that will have showcased quite a number of future NBA players.
The final two weeks of the regular season are at hand and although most of the Playoff teams are known there are still seedings to be determined as the final games are played with teams having just 4, 5 or 6 games remaining.
Houston has officially wrapped up the top seed in the Western Conference and the top overall seed in the league, guaranteeing the Rockets the home court advantage in every series in which they are involved.
The accomplishment may have also secured the MVP award he was denied last season, for James Harden who has teamed with Chris Paul to make the Rockets a legitimate threat to end Golden State’s ownership of the Western Conference for the prior three seasons.
Unfortunately there is little to no value in betting on the Rockets to win either the NBA title or even the Western Conference title.
It became apparent rather early in the season, even before Thanksgiving, that Houston was a much improved team over last season with the arrival of Paul from the Clippers and a few other off season moves. It was not long before the odds on the Rockets dropped to low single digits to unseat the Warriors as NBA champs and those odds stabilized around 2-1 quite early in 2018.
As of Monday morning the Warriors were still +110 favorites to win it all with the Rockets’ odds almost equal at +120. No other team was held at single digits with Cleveland next at 10-1, Toronto at 12-1 and Boston at 20-1.
The Warriors are -130 to win the Western Conference with Houston at even money.
If you are looking for a longshot to spoil the plans of the Warriors and Rockets to reach the NBA Finals you might consider Portland.
The Blazers have played extremely well over the past couple of months and are currently priced at 30-1 to win the West (60-1 to win it all).
After winning its final game before the All Star break Portland returned from the week off by winning 12 more in a row. The 13-game winning streak ended with back-to-back home losses to Houston and Boston, which has been followed by winning four of five through last Sunday.
Handicapping and betting the final two weeks of the NBA season can be challenging with teams taking different approaches to preparing for the Playoffs, needing to make the Playoffs or playing out the string.
It has often been best to look for games in which both teams have reasons to play hard, although improving one’s seed is often much less a reason to play hard than the need to win to improve realistic chances of making the Playoffs.
The regular season ends next Wednesday, April 11, and in next week’s column a preview of the Playoffs will be presented to the extent possible given the uncertainty of the first round matchups, most of which are likely to still be undetermined at press time.
Here are thoughts on three games this weekend.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (Friday): The three prior meetings this season between the Pacers and Raptors have been decided by 3, 5 and 7 points with Toronto winning 2 of the 3 on the court but the Pacers cashing 2 of the 3 at the betting windows. Toronto has not yet clinched the top seed in the East but entered this week with a two-game lead over Boston with each team having six games left.
The Pacers have clinched a Playoff spot and should be seeded no lower than fifth, where they started the week, but just a half game behind Philadelphia and a game behind third seeded Cleveland while enjoying a four-game lead over sixth seeded Washington. Finishing third or fourth would give the Pacers home court advantage in the first round of the Playoffs.
The Raptors had been the best home team in the NBA for most of the season but at 31-7 have slipped to second behind Houston. That’s because Toronto has lost two of its last four home games, being upset by Brooklyn and Denver over the past two weeks. But they’ve also been overpriced as home favorites recently and through Sunday were on an 0-5 ATS run at home. INDIANA