Tournament trends

March 07, 2010 10:06 PM
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All sports in general develop certain patterns bettors should be aware of. As we are closing in on March Madness, here are a few you might be interested in.

A few sports books (Hilton for sure) put out a proposition on whether the top four seeds in the NCAA will accomplish 13 victories collectively on their way to the Final Four. You can bet over or under on this, but I bet it over. I’ve played this every year and I can assure you this point has been a successful wager.

It’s almost a given that they will all win first and second round games the first weekend. Now you’ve got 8 winners, needing only five more between four live teams. If you can get three of the four to win at the Sweet 16 you are almost there with 11 winners going into the Elite 8.

Two victories in the Elite 8 put you in a tie with the Final Four next week. This bracket could pit 2 of your teams together, which automatically gives you a win. You don’t need the Final Four or Championship game victory unless you need an ego boost. I am aware that there are no Final Four locks this year, or for the championship game. Remember, in this prop there are no point spreads.

Another favorite bet is the first round of the NIT. Although the NCAA is now involved in this tourney, the fact is they select the games in the opening round on a fairly consistent basis with attendance and TV viewers in mind, so the initial first round games are played at potential high revenue locations. These games are built for the home teams to draw large crowds and be popular with the public through TV ratings. Almost all-home teams will win their first games, or at least will be projected to do so. Depending upon the revenue they create the 2nd round, which is usually made up of best attendance and viewership, not necessarily by abilities. Play the first round on home teams – it may work for you.

Next week we’ll get into the overs and unders of some MLB teams, which teams got hurt and which got help with trades and fee agency. Just as a teaser I’ll tell you that Toronto and Baltimore will be fighting each other to stay out of the cellar in the AL East.

Have a great week.