Waiting on college football bowls

Dec 11, 2012 3:00 AM

Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the “experts in the desert” truthfully think about the teams:

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

THE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup: Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).

To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup: Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

Vegas Rankings – College Football Top 25
   
Home
True
Bettor
Spread
   
Field 
Power
Bias
Power
1
Alabama
5.0
100.0
2.0
102
2
Oregon
6.0
99.0
1.5
100.5
3
Texas A&M
4.5
94.0
0.0
94.0
4
Georgia
4.0
92.5
0.0
92.5
t5
Florida
4.0
91.0
0.0
91.0
t5
Kansas State
4.5
91.0
0.5
91.5
t5
LSU
5.0
91.0
0.0
91.0
t5
Oklahoma
5.5
91.0
0.0
91.0
9
Notre Dame
4.0
90.5
2.0
92.5
10
South Carolina
4.5
90.0
0.0
90.0
t11
Stanford
4.5
89.5
0.0
89.5
t11
Florida State
4.0
89.5
0.0
89.5
t13
Oklahoma St
4.5
87.5
0.0
87.5
t13
Clemson
5.0
87.5
0.0
87.5
15
Ohio State
5.0
87.0
1.5
88.5
16
UCLA
4.0
86.0
0.0
86.0
17
Oregon State
4.0
85.0
0.0
85.0
18
Nebraska
4.5
84.5
0.0
84.5
t19
Texas
4.5
84.0
0.0
84.0
t19
Wisconsin
5.0
84.0
0.0
84.0
t19
USC
3.5
84.0
0.0
84.0
22
Michigan
4.5
83.5
0.0
83.5
23
Penn State
5.0
82.5
0.0
82.5
t24
Utah State
3.5
82.0
0.0
82.0
t24
Boise State
4.0
82.0
0.5
82.5

Voters include Chris Andrews, with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience, and “Vegas Runner” – featured by ESPN and CNBC for his professional betting success.

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com - and co-host of FIRST PREVIEW, heard Sunday through Friday night at 11 pm on ESPN 1100/98.9 FM. Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas. NFL Vegas Rankings updated every Tuesday at Pregame.com. Contact RJ at[email protected]

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